iShares MBS ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Evaluation of iShares MBS ETF downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on May 08, 2024)
The iShares MBS ETF price fell by -0.209% on the last day (Wednesday, 8th May 2024) from $91.01 to $90.82. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.165% from a day low at $90.77 to a day high of $90.92. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 1.11% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -16 thousand shares and in total, 4 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $374.70 million.
The ETF lies in the middle of a narrow and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -2.60% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $86.47 and $89.14 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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MBB Signals & Forecast
The iShares MBS ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock, but the ETF has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $90.37 and $90.79. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, April 16, 2024, and so far it has risen 1.58%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for iShares MBS ETF
iShares MBS finds support from accumulated volume at $90.16 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.150 between high and low, or 0.165%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.382%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $85.74 (-5.59%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 16 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (MBB) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 9th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 9th we expect iShares MBS ETF to open at $90.84, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $90.31 and $91.33, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.506 (+/-0.56%) up or down from last closing price. If iShares MBS ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.11% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $90.16 (0.73%) than the resistance at $91.80 (1.08%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is iShares MBS ETF ETF A Buy?
iShares MBS holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.000 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Zero in score indicates that our system is expecting high volatility and risk for the following trading day. Given the latest developments, we cannot determine the next direction as it may go both ways.
Predicted Opening Price for iShares MBS ETF of Thursday, May 9, 2024
| Fair opening price May 9, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $90.84 ( 0.0184%) | $90.82 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for MBB
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 90.99 | 0.184 % | |
| R2 | 90.93 | 0.120 % | ||
| R1 | 90.89 | 0.0814 % | ||
| Current price: | 90.82 | |||
| Support | S1 | 90.78 | -0.0447 % | |
| S2 | 90.74 | -0.0837 % | ||
| S3 | 90.69 | -0.147 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 92.85 | 2.24 % | |
| R2 | 92.50 | 1.85 % | ||
| R1 | 91.80 | 1.08 % | ||
| Current price | 90.82 | |||
| Support | S1 | 90.16 | -0.727% | |
| S2 | 90.10 | -0.793% | ||
| S3 | 90.01 | -0.89% |
MBB Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apr 30, 2024 | May 01, 2024 | May 07, 2024 | $0.282 | 0.310% |
| 2 | Mar 28, 2024 | Apr 01, 2024 | Apr 05, 2024 | $0.283 | 0.310% |
| 3 | Feb 29, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 07, 2024 | $0.292 | 0.315% |
| 4 | Jan 31, 2024 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 07, 2024 | $0.297 | 0.321% |
| 5 | Nov 30, 2023 | Dec 14, 2023 | Dec 07, 2023 | $0.276 | 0.300% |
FAQ
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