National CineMedia Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Green day on Friday for National CineMedia
(Updated on May 03, 2024)
The National CineMedia stock price gained 0.661% on the last trading day (Friday, 3rd May 2024), rising from $4.54 to $4.57. It has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.33% from a day low at $4.51 to a day high of $4.66. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 1.56% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -126 thousand shares and in total, 384 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.75 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies in the lower part of a very wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $4.33 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 20.19% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $5.20 and $7.34 at the end of this 3-month period.
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NCMI Signals & Forecast
There are mixed signals in the stock today. The National CineMedia stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $4.87. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $4.47. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, March 22, 2024, and so far it has fallen -18.83%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for National CineMedia stock
National CineMedia finds support from accumulated volume at $4.52 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.150 between high and low, or 3.33%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.98%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (NCMI) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 6th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 6th we expect National CineMedia to open at $4.58, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $4.35 and $4.79, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.216 (+/-4.74%) up or down from last closing price. If National CineMedia takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 9.47% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $4.52 (1.09%) than the resistance at $4.95 (8.32%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Earnings coming up
National CineMedia will release earnings AMC on Monday, May 06, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is -$0.120. We will update the financials statements for National CineMedia, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 6.92% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is National CineMedia stock A Buy?
National CineMedia holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock.
Current score: -1.782 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for National CineMedia of Monday, May 6, 2024
| Fair opening price May 6, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $4.58 ( 0.219%) | $4.57 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for NCMI
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 4.73 | 3.50 % | |
| R2 | 4.67 | 2.25 % | ||
| R1 | 4.64 | 1.47 % | ||
| Current price: | 4.57 | |||
| Support | S1 | 4.52 | -1.04 % | |
| S2 | 4.49 | -1.81 % | ||
| S3 | 4.43 | -3.06 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 5.21 | 14.00 % | |
| R2 | 5.06 | 10.72 % | ||
| R1 | 4.95 | 8.32 % | ||
| Current price | 4.57 | |||
| Support | S1 | 4.52 | -1.09% | |
| S2 | 4.08 | -10.72% | ||
| S3 | 4.05 | -11.38% |
NCMI Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 08, 2022 | Aug 19, 2022 | Sep 06, 2022 | $0.0300 | 0.275% |
| 2 | May 09, 2022 | May 20, 2022 | Jun 07, 2022 | $0.0300 | 0.226% |
| 3 | Mar 03, 2022 | Mar 16, 2022 | Mar 31, 2022 | $0.0500 | 0.197% |
| 4 | Nov 08, 2021 | Nov 19, 2021 | Dec 07, 2021 | $0.0500 | 0.189% |
| 5 | Aug 09, 2021 | Aug 20, 2021 | Sep 06, 2021 | $0.0500 | 0.203% |
FAQ
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