First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF downgraded from Buy Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on Jun 28, 2024)
The First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF price fell by -0.199% on the last day (Friday, 28th Jun 2024) from $60.40 to $60.28. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.630% from a day low at $60.15 to a day high of $60.53. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.94% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -6 thousand shares and in total, 18 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.08 million.
The ETF lies in the upper part of a weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $60.90 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 6.03% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $60.50 and $64.58 at the end of this 3-month period.
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NFTY Signals & Forecast
The First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $59.77 and $58.46. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, June 18, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.380%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day, which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this ETF may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF
On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $57.13 and $56.43. There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight finds support just below today's level at $57.13. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $56.43 and $56.04.
In general the ETF tends to have controlled movements and therefore the general risk is considered low. However, be aware of low or falling volume and make sure to keep an eye on the ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.379 between high and low, or 0.630%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.717%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $58.04 (-3.72%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 17 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (NFTY) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 1st we expect First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF to open at $60.32, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $59.57 and $60.99, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.711 (+/-1.18%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.36% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $60.40 (0.20%) than the support at $57.13 (5.23%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF ETF A Buy?
First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.423 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF of Monday, July 1, 2024
| Fair opening price July 1, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $60.32 ( 0.0668%) | $60.28 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for NFTY
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 60.70 | 0.696% |
| R2 | 60.55 | 0.456% |
| R1 | 60.47 | 0.307% |
| Price | 60.28 | |
| S1 | 60.18 | -0.174% |
| S2 | 60.09 | -0.322% |
| S3 | 59.94 | -0.562% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 0 | - |
| R2 | 60.51 | 0.382% |
| R1 | 60.40 | 0.199% |
| Price | 60.28 | |
| S1 | 57.13 | -5.23% |
| S2 | 56.43 | -6.39% |
| S3 | 56.04 | -7.03% |
NFTY Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $0.0785 | 0.138% |
| 2 | Jun 26, 2023 | Jun 27, 2023 | Jun 30, 2023 | $0.0180 | 0.0376% |
| 3 | Mar 23, 2023 | Mar 24, 2023 | Mar 31, 2023 | $0.0530 | 0.126% |
| 4 | Dec 22, 2022 | Dec 23, 2022 | Dec 30, 2022 | $1.05 | 2.41% |
| 5 | Sep 22, 2022 | Sep 23, 2022 | Sep 30, 2022 | $0.225 | 0.525% |
FAQ
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