NAPCO Security Technologies Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Green day on Friday for NAPCO Security Technologies
(Updated on May 03, 2024)
The NAPCO Security Technologies stock price gained 1.72% on the last trading day (Friday, 3rd May 2024), rising from $41.75 to $42.47. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.61% from a day low at $41.63 to a day high of $43.55. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 6.12% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 432 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 695 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $29.52 million.
The stock lies the upper part of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $43.52 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -8.91% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $32.90 and $39.64 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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NSSC Signals & Forecast
Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The NAPCO Security Technologies stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $42.21 and $40.39. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, May 01, 2024, and so far it has risen 5.65%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for NAPCO Security Technologies stock
NAPCO Security Technologies finds support from accumulated volume at $41.15 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $1.92 between high and low, or 4.61%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 4.40%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $40.89 (-3.72%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 2 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (NSSC) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 6th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 6th we expect NAPCO Security Technologies to open at $42.55, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $41.02 and $43.92, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.45 (+/-3.42%) up or down from last closing price. If NAPCO Security Technologies takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.85% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $42.55 (0.19%) than the support at $41.15 (3.11%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
NAPCO Security Technologies will release earnings BMO on Monday, May 13, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $0.340. We will update the financials statements for NAPCO Security Technologies, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 13.34% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is NAPCO Security Technologies stock A Buy?
Several short-term signals are positive, despite the stock being in a falling trend, we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for stock to perform well in the short-term.
Current score: 3.593 Buy Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for NAPCO Security Technologies of Monday, May 6, 2024
| Fair opening price May 6, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $42.55 ( 0.188%) | $42.47 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for NSSC
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 44.47 | 4.71 % | |
| R2 | 43.74 | 2.98 % | ||
| R1 | 43.28 | 1.92 % | ||
| Current price: | 42.47 | |||
| Support | S1 | 41.82 | -1.54 % | |
| S2 | 41.36 | -2.61 % | ||
| S3 | 40.63 | -4.33 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 43.87 | 3.30 % | |
| R2 | 43.43 | 2.26 % | ||
| R1 | 42.55 | 0.188 % | ||
| Current price | 42.47 | |||
| Support | S1 | 41.15 | -3.11% | |
| S2 | 40.02 | -5.77% | ||
| S3 | 39.00 | -8.17% |
NSSC Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 05, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 22, 2024 | $0.100 | 0.254% |
| 2 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 29, 2024 | Mar 22, 2024 | $0.100 | 0.254% |
| 3 | Nov 02, 2023 | Nov 30, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | $0.0800 | 0.230% |
| 4 | Aug 18, 2023 | Aug 31, 2023 | Sep 22, 2023 | $0.0800 | 0.347% |
| 5 | May 05, 2023 | May 19, 2023 | Jun 12, 2023 | $0.0630 | 0.157% |
FAQ
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