Oak Valley Bancorp(NDA) Stock Forecast
Oak Valley Bancorp(NDA) stock downgraded to Hold/Accumulate
(Updated on May 14, 2024)
The Oak Valley Bancorp(NDA) stock price fell by -1.00% on the last day (Tuesday, 14th May 2024) from $25.00 to $24.75. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.12% from a day low at $24.48 to a day high of $25.00. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 2.48% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -20 thousand shares and in total, 7 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $168.72 thousand.
The stockis at the upper part of a horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $24.99 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Oak Valley Bancorp(NDA) stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $22.57 and $24.56 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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OVLY Signals & Forecast
The Oak Valley Bancorp(NDA) stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $24.02 and $23.96. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, May 13, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.00%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day, which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this stock may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Oak Valley Bancorp(NDA) stock
Oak Valley Bancorp(NDA) finds support from accumulated volume at $23.65 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the stock tends to have controlled movements and therefore the general risk is considered low. However, be aware of low or falling volume and make sure to keep an eye on the stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.520 between high and low, or 2.12%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.07%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $23.67 (-4.38%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)
Trading Expectations (OVLY) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 15th
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 15th we expect Oak Valley Bancorp(NDA) to open at $24.74, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $24.09 and $25.41, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.655 (+/-2.65%) up or down from last closing price. If Oak Valley Bancorp(NDA) takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.29% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $25.00 (1.01%) than the support at $23.65 (4.44%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Oak Valley Bancorp(NDA) stock A Buy?
Oak Valley Bancorp(NDA) holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.462 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Oak Valley Bancorp(NDA) of Wednesday, May 15, 2024
| Fair opening price May 15, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $24.74 ( 0.0269%) | $24.75 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for OVLY
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 25.26 | 2.07 % | |
| R2 | 25.06 | 1.27 % | ||
| R1 | 24.94 | 0.776 % | ||
| Current price: | 24.75 | |||
| Support | S1 | 24.54 | -0.83 % | |
| S2 | 24.42 | -1.33 % | ||
| S3 | 24.22 | -2.13 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 26.42 | 6.75 % | |
| R2 | 25.03 | 1.13 % | ||
| R1 | 25.00 | 1.01 % | ||
| Current price | 24.75 | |||
| Support | S1 | 23.65 | -4.44% | |
| S2 | 23.52 | -4.97% | ||
| S3 | 23.25 | -6.06% |
OVLY Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan 16, 2024 | Jan 26, 2024 | Feb 09, 2024 | $0.225 | 0.89% |
| 2 | Jul 18, 2023 | Jul 28, 2023 | Aug 11, 2023 | $0.160 | 0.594% |
| 3 | Jan 20, 2023 | Jan 27, 2023 | Feb 10, 2023 | $0.160 | 0.587% |
| 4 | Jul 21, 2022 | Jul 29, 2022 | Aug 12, 2022 | $0.150 | 0.81% |
| 5 | Jan 24, 2022 | Jan 28, 2022 | Feb 11, 2022 | $0.150 | 0.794% |
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