ETRACS 2xMonthly Pay Leveraged US Small ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
ETRACS 2xMonthly Pay Leveraged US Small ETF downgraded to Hold/Accumulate
(Updated on May 17, 2024)
The ETRACS 2xMonthly Pay Leveraged US Small ETF price fell by -3.37% on the last day (Friday, 17th May 2024) from $6.52 to $6.30. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 3.49% from a day low at $6.30 to a day high of $6.52. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 2.61% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -97 thousand shares and in total, 37 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $231.02 thousand.
The ETF is moving within a wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect ETRACS 2xMonthly Pay Leveraged US Small ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $5.68 and $6.89 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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SMHB Signals & Forecast
The ETRACS 2xMonthly Pay Leveraged US Small ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $6.41. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $6.16. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, May 14, 2024, and so far it has fallen -4.55%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day, which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this ETF may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for ETRACS 2xMonthly Pay Leveraged US Small ETF
ETRACS 2xMonthly Pay Leveraged US Small finds support from accumulated volume at $6.16 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF has average movements during the day, but be aware of low or falling volume as this increases the risk. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.220 between high and low, or 3.49%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 4.08%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $5.95 (-5.61%) (This ETF has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 3 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (SMHB) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 20th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 20th we expect ETRACS 2xMonthly Pay Leveraged US Small Cap High Dividend ETN to open at $6.37, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $6.06 and $6.54, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.240 (+/-3.81%) up or down from last closing price. If ETRACS 2xMonthly Pay Leveraged US Small Cap High Dividend ETN takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 7.63% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $6.31 (0.16%) than the support at $6.16 (2.22%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is ETRACS 2xMonthly Pay Leveraged US Small Cap High Dividend ETN ETF A Buy?
ETRACS 2xMonthly Pay Leveraged US Small holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.428 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for ETRACS 2xMonthly Pay Leveraged US Small Cap High Dividend ETN of Monday, May 20, 2024
| Fair opening price May 20, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $6.37 ( 1.16%) | $6.30 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for SMHB
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 6.59 | 4.66 % | |
| R2 | 6.51 | 3.32 % | ||
| R1 | 6.46 | 2.50 % | ||
| Current price: | 6.30 | |||
| Support | S1 | 6.29 | -0.170 % | |
| S2 | 6.24 | -0.99 % | ||
| S3 | 6.15 | -2.33 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 6.60 | 4.76 % | |
| R2 | 6.52 | 3.49 % | ||
| R1 | 6.31 | 0.159 % | ||
| Current price | 6.30 | |||
| Support | S1 | 6.16 | -2.22% | |
| S2 | 6.02 | -4.44% | ||
| S3 | 5.91 | -6.19% |
SMHB Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May 10, 2024 | May 10, 2024 | May 21, 2024 | $0.0915 | 1.44% |
| 2 | Apr 11, 2024 | Apr 11, 2024 | Apr 22, 2024 | $0.175 | 2.96% |
| 3 | Mar 11, 2024 | Mar 11, 2024 | Mar 20, 2024 | $0.0449 | 0.703% |
| 4 | Feb 09, 2024 | Feb 09, 2024 | Feb 21, 2024 | $0.0513 | 0.87% |
| 5 | Jan 12, 2024 | Jan 12, 2024 | Jan 24, 2024 | $0.159 | 2.50% |
FAQ
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