-1x Short VIX Futures ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
-1x Short VIX Futures ETF downgraded from Buy Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on May 17, 2024)
The -1x Short VIX Futures ETF price gained 1.15% on the last trading day (Friday, 17th May 2024), rising from $46.02 to $46.55. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.69% from a day low at $45.88 to a day high of $46.65. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 11.5% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -51 thousand shares and in total, 367 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $17.07 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF has broken the wide and weak rising the short-term trend up and an even stronger rate of rising is indicated. For any reaction back there will now be support on the roof on the current trend broken at $44.66, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory $53.47 will be the next possible trend-top level and thereby pose a resistance level that may not be broken at the first attempt.
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SVIX Signals & Forecast
The -1x Short VIX Futures ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $44.83 and $40.43. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 32.66%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for -1x Short VIX Futures ETF
On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $40.34 and $36.96. There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, -1x Short VIX Futures finds support just below today's level at $40.34. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $36.96 and $35.14.
This ETF may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this ETF is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the ETF moved $0.775 between high and low, or 1.69%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 2.29%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $44.29 (-4.86%) (This ETF has high daily movements and this gives high risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 20 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (SVIX) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 20th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 20th we expect -1x Short VIX Futures ETF to open at $46.36, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $45.17 and $47.93, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.38 (+/-2.96%) up or down from last closing price. If -1x Short VIX Futures ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.93% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ $40.34, some $6.21 (13.34%) from the current price of $46.55, our system finds the risk reward attractive.
Is -1x Short VIX Futures ETF ETF A Buy?
-1x Short VIX Futures holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.000 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Zero in score indicates that our system is expecting high volatility and risk for the following trading day. Given the latest developments, we cannot determine the next direction as it may go both ways.
Predicted Opening Price for -1x Short VIX Futures ETF of Monday, May 20, 2024
| Fair opening price May 20, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $46.36 ( 0.412%) | $46.55 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for SVIX
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 47.13 | 1.25 % | |
| R2 | 46.84 | 0.617 % | ||
| R1 | 46.65 | 0.224 % | ||
| Current price: | 46.55 | |||
| Support | S1 | 46.06 | -1.05 % | |
| S2 | 45.88 | -1.44 % | ||
| S3 | 45.58 | -2.08 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0 | . | |
| R2 | 0 | . | ||
| R1 | 0 | . | ||
| Current price | 46.55 | |||
| Support | S1 | 40.34 | -13.34% | |
| S2 | 36.96 | -20.60% | ||
| S3 | 35.14 | -24.51% |
FAQ
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