Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund ETF Forecast

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund ETF upgraded to Hold/Accumulate.
(Updated on May 20, 2024)

UDN Signals & Forecast

The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $18.01 and $17.88. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, May 15, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.166%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day, which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this ETF may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk. The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Thursday, May 02, 2024 in the short-term chart.

Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund ETF

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund finds support from accumulated volume at $17.95 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and therefore the general risk is considered very low. However, be aware of low or falling volume and make sure to keep an eye on the ETF During the last day, the ETF moved $0.0200 between high and low, or 0.111%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.244%

The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETFS may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: $17.43 (-3.43%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. The RSI14 is 79 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 24 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (UDN) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 21st

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 21st we expect Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund to open at $18.06, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $17.98 and $18.12, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.0723 (+/-0.40%) up or down from last closing price. If Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.80% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $18.08 (0.17%) than the support at $17.95 (0.55%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund ETF A Buy?

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Current score: -0.637 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded

Predicted Opening Price for Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund of Tuesday, May 21, 2024

The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.