ProShares Ultra Gold ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Evaluation of ProShares Ultra Gold ETF downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Jun 26, 2024)
The ProShares Ultra Gold ETF price fell by -1.84% on the last day (Wednesday, 26th Jun 2024) from $76.77 to $75.36. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.92% from a day low at $74.99 to a day high of $75.68. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -1.81% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 50 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 143 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $10.80 million.
The ETF is at the lower part of a wide and horizontal trend in the short term, and normally this may pose a good buying opportunity, though a breakdown through the bottom trend line at $74.90 will give a strong sell signal and a trend shift may be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect ProShares Ultra Gold ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $74.66 and $84.61 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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UGL Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, June 07, 2024, and so far it has risen 0.547%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The ProShares Ultra Gold ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $77.23 and $78.91. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for ProShares Ultra Gold ETF
ProShares Ultra Gold finds support from accumulated volume at $74.95 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.690 between high and low, or 0.92%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.71%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $71.48 (-5.15%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 25 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (UGL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 27th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 27th we expect ProShares Ultra Gold ETF to open at $75.34, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $73.46 and $77.26, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.90 (+/-2.52%) up or down from last closing price. If ProShares Ultra Gold ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.05% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $74.95 (0.54%) than the resistance at $77.78 (3.21%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is ProShares Ultra Gold ETF ETF A Buy?
ProShares Ultra Gold holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.121 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for ProShares Ultra Gold ETF of Thursday, June 27, 2024
| Fair opening price June 27, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $75.34 ( 0.0223%) | $75.36 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for UGL
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 76.03 | 0.89% |
| R2 | 75.77 | 0.543% |
| R1 | 75.61 | 0.327% |
| Price | 75.36 | |
| S1 | 75.08 | -0.372% |
| S2 | 74.92 | -0.588% |
| S3 | 74.65 | -0.94% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 82.97 | 10.10% |
| R2 | 80.07 | 6.25% |
| R1 | 77.78 | 3.21% |
| Price | 75.36 | |
| S1 | 74.95 | -0.544% |
| S2 | 73.74 | -2.15% |
| S3 | 72.26 | -4.11% |
FAQ
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