Usd/jpy Currency Pair Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jun 01, 2026 Gain 0.16%

The USD/JPY currency pair price fell by -0.0256% on the last day (Wednesday, 3rd Jun 2026) from JP¥159.96 to JP¥159.92. During the last trading day the currency pair fluctuated 0.160% from a day low at JP¥159.83 to a day high of JP¥160.08. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.53% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 53 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 174 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately JP¥27.83 million.

The currency pairis at the upper part of a narrow and horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at JP¥160.34 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect USD/JPY currency pair with a 90% probability to be traded between JP¥156.41 and JP¥160.41 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and currency pairs seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Currency pairs turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

USDJPY Signals & Forecast

The USD/JPY currency pair holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the currency pair. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at JP¥159.54 and JP¥158.64. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, June 02, 2026, and so far it has fallen -0.0256%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the currency pair should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for USD/JPY currency pair

USD/JPY finds support from accumulated volume at JP¥159.70 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the currency pair tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this currency pair. During the last day, the currency pair moved JP¥0.255 between high and low, or 0.160%. For the last week the currency pair has had daily average volatility of 0.157%.

The USD/JPY currency pair is overbought on RSI14 and the RSI has been falling for the last couple of days. This together with the fact that the currency pair is in the upper part of the trend poses a possible good selling opportunity for the short-term trader. However, one should note that some currency pairs may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the currency pair manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: JP¥156.16 (-2.35%) (This currency pair has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. The RSI14 is 83 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)

Trading Expectations (USDJPY) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 4th

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 4th we expect USD/JPY to open at JP¥159.94, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between JP¥159.61 and JP¥160.23, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-JP¥0.623 (+/-0.39%) up or down from last closing price. If USD/JPY takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.39% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at JP¥159.96 (0.03%) than the support at JP¥159.70 (0.14%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is USD/JPY currency pair A Buy?

USD/JPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this currency pair since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold candidate.

Current score: 0.450 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on June 4, 2026 - JP¥159.94 ( 0.0152%).

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