Usd/jpy Currency Pair Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jun 01, 2026 Gain 1.19%

The USD/JPY currency pair price fell by -0.0080% on the last day (Tuesday, 23rd Jun 2026) from JP¥161.57 to JP¥161.56. During the last trading day the currency pair fluctuated 0.296% from a day low at JP¥161.26 to a day high of JP¥161.74. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.86% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the currency pair, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the currency pair. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -36 thousand shares and in total, 177 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately JP¥28.60 million.

The currency pairis at the upper part of a narrow and horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at JP¥161.59 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect USD/JPY currency pair with a 90% probability to be traded between JP¥158.41 and JP¥162.99 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and currency pairs seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Currency pairs turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

USDJPY Signals & Forecast

The USD/JPY currency pair holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the currency pair. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at JP¥160.75 and JP¥159.22. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, June 22, 2026, and so far it has fallen -0.0080%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for USD/JPY currency pair

USD/JPY finds support from accumulated volume at JP¥158.67 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the currency pair tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this currency pair. During the last day, the currency pair moved JP¥0.478 between high and low, or 0.296%. For the last week the currency pair has had daily average volatility of 0.220%.

The USD/JPY currency pair is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some currency pairs may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the currency pair manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: JP¥155.96 (-3.46%) (This currency pair has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. The RSI14 is 77 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)

Trading Expectations (USDJPY) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 24th

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 24th we expect USD/JPY to open at JP¥161.52, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between JP¥161.29 and JP¥161.82, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-JP¥0.534 (+/-0.33%) up or down from last closing price. If USD/JPY takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.33% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at JP¥161.57 (0.01%) than the support at JP¥158.67 (1.79%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is USD/JPY currency pair A Buy?

USD/JPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.

Current score: -0.244 Hold/Accumulate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on June 24, 2026 - JP¥161.52 ( 0.0223%).

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