UTI Mutual Fund ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Weaker technical forecast for UTI Mutual Fund as ETF downgraded to Buy Candidate.
(Updated on Jun 26, 2024)
The UTI Mutual Fund ETF price fell by -0.161% on the last day (Wednesday, 26th Jun 2024) from ₹86.70 to ₹86.56. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 3.81% from a day low at ₹86.41 to a day high of ₹89.70. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.37% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -3 thousand shares and in total, 265 shares were bought and sold for approximately ₹22.94 thousand.
The ETF lies in the upper part of a strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at ₹86.88 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 13.88% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between ₹92.58 and ₹98.94 at the end of this 3-month period.
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UTISXN50.BO Signals & Forecast
The UTI Mutual Fund ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at ₹86.38 and ₹82.23. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, June 25, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.161%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this ETF may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk. The very low volume increases the risk and reduces the other technical signals issued.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for UTI Mutual Fund ETF
UTI Mutual Fund finds support from accumulated volume at ₹83.05 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF has average movements during the day, but be aware of low or falling volume as this increases the risk. During the last day, the ETF moved ₹3.29 between high and low, or 3.81%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 2.33%.
The UTI Mutual Fund ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETFS may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stop-loss: ₹83.71 (-3.30%) (This ETF has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 86 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 15 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (UTISXN50.BO) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 27th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 27th we expect UTI Mutual Fund to open at ₹87.56, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between ₹84.34 and ₹88.78, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-₹2.22 (+/-2.57%) up or down from last closing price. If UTI Mutual Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.13% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at ₹86.60 (0.05%) than the support at ₹83.05 (4.05%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is UTI Mutual Fund ETF A Buy?
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for UTI Mutual Fund ETF to perform well in the short-term. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 3.159 Buy Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for UTI Mutual Fund of Thursday, June 27, 2024
| Fair opening price June 27, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| ₹87.56 ( 1.15%) | ₹86.56 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for UTISXN50.BO
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 90.85 | 4.95% |
| R2 | 89.59 | 3.50% |
| R1 | 88.81 | 2.60% |
| Price | 86.56 | |
| S1 | 86.30 | -0.301% |
| S2 | 85.52 | -1.20% |
| S3 | 84.27 | -2.65% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 0 | - |
| R2 | 86.70 | 0.162% |
| R1 | 86.60 | 0.0462% |
| Price | 86.56 | |
| S1 | 83.05 | -4.05% |
| S2 | 79.06 | -8.66% |
| S3 | 78.65 | -9.14% |
FAQ
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