Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Weaker technical forecast for Vanguard S&P 500 Index as ETF downgraded to Hold/Accumulate.
(Updated on Jun 14, 2024)
The Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF price fell by -0.0678% on the last day (Friday, 14th Jun 2024) from $132.75 to $132.66. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.386% from a day low at $132.24 to a day high of $132.75. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.78% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 112 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 309 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $41.00 million.
The ETF lies in the upper part of a weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $132.86 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 5.38% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $132.11 and $140.01 at the end of this 3-month period.
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VFV.TO Signals & Forecast
The Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $131.57 and $127.86. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, June 13, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.0678%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF
On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $125.43 and $124.00. There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Vanguard S&P 500 Index finds support just below today's level at $125.43. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $124.00 and $123.80.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.510 between high and low, or 0.386%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.543%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $129.30 (-2.53%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 11 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (VFV.TO) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 17th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 17th we expect Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF to open at $132.55, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $131.69 and $133.63, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.97 (+/-0.73%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.47% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $132.75 (0.07%) than the support at $125.43 (5.45%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF ETF A Buy?
Vanguard S&P 500 Index holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.618 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF of Monday, June 17, 2024
| Fair opening price June 17, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $132.55 ( 0.0829%) | $132.66 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for VFV.TO
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 133.06 | 0.302% |
| R2 | 132.87 | 0.155% |
| R1 | 132.74 | 0.0639% |
| Price | 132.66 | |
| S1 | 132.36 | -0.230% |
| S2 | 132.23 | -0.321% |
| S3 | 132.04 | -0.467% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 0 | - |
| R2 | 0 | - |
| R1 | 132.75 | 0.0678% |
| Price | 132.66 | |
| S1 | 125.43 | -5.45% |
| S2 | 124.00 | -6.53% |
| S3 | 123.80 | -6.68% |
VFV Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 22, 2024 | Mar 22, 2024 | Apr 02, 2024 | $0.350 | 0.279% |
| 2 | Dec 28, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | $0.375 | 0.334% |
| 3 | Sep 28, 2023 | Sep 28, 2023 | Sep 28, 2023 | $0.316 | 0.307% |
| 4 | Jun 29, 2023 | Jun 29, 2023 | Jun 29, 2023 | $0.323 | 0.313% |
| 5 | Mar 24, 2023 | Mar 24, 2023 | Mar 24, 2023 | $0.328 | 0.339% |
FAQ
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