Invesco Bloomberg Commodity ETF Forecast
Evaluation of Invesco Bloomberg Commodity ETF downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Jun 28, 2024)
The Invesco Bloomberg Commodity ETF price fell by -0.388% on the last day (Friday, 28th Jun 2024) from 28.37€ to 28.26€. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.26% from a day low at 28.22€ to a day high of 28.57€. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -0.37% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 8 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 10 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately 283.51€ thousand.
The ETF lies in the middle of a weak rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 3.14% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between 28.62€ and 30.80€ at the end of this 3-month period.
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XAAG.F Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, June 04, 2024, and so far it has risen 2.82%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Invesco Bloomberg Commodity ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at 28.45€ and 28.40€. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Invesco Bloomberg Commodity gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs".
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Invesco Bloomberg Commodity ETF
Invesco Bloomberg Commodity finds support from accumulated volume at 28.17€ and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved 0.355€ between high and low, or 1.26%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.98%.
Our recommended stop-loss: 26.94€ (-4.65%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 28 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (XAAG.F) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 1st we expect Invesco Bloomberg Commodity Ex-agriculture Ucits Etf to open at 28.35€, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between 27.93€ and 28.58€, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-0.323€ (+/-1.14%) up or down from last closing price. If Invesco Bloomberg Commodity Ex-agriculture Ucits Etf takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.28% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at 28.28€ (0.09%) than the support at 28.17€ (0.30%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Invesco Bloomberg Commodity Ex-agriculture Ucits Etf ETF A Buy?
Invesco Bloomberg Commodity holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.378 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Invesco Bloomberg Commodity Ex-agriculture Ucits Etf of Monday, July 1, 2024
Fair opening price July 1, 2024 | Current price |
---|---|
28.35€ ( 0.324%) | 28.26€ |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for XAAG.F
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |
---|---|---|
R3 | 28.70 | 1.58% |
R2 | 28.57 | 1.10% |
R1 | 28.48 | 0.80% |
Price | 28.26 | |
S1 | 28.21 | -0.156% |
S2 | 28.13 | -0.452% |
S3 | 27.99 | -0.93% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |
---|---|---|
R3 | 28.42 | 0.584% |
R2 | 28.41 | 0.549% |
R1 | 28.28 | 0.0885% |
Price | 28.26 | |
S1 | 28.17 | -0.301% |
S2 | 28.13 | -0.442% |
S3 | 28.09 | -0.584% |
FAQ
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