Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Red day on Thursday for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance
(Updated on Apr 25, 2024)
The Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock price fell by -1.01% on the last day (Thursday, 25th Apr 2024) from $10.84 to $10.73. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.08% from a day low at $10.69 to a day high of $10.81. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -1.11% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -50 thousand shares and in total, 516 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $5.53 million.
The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -2.89% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $9.92 and $11.09 at the end of this 3-month period.
Ready to grow your portfolio? Here's your beginner's guide to opening a free brokerage account.
ARI Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, April 16, 2024, and so far it has risen 3.37%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $10.96. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $10.72. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance finds support from accumulated volume at $10.65 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $0.115 (1.08%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.94%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (ARI) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 26th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 26th we expect Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance to open at $10.74, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $10.49 and $10.97, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.241 (+/-2.25%) up or down from last closing price. If Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.49% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $10.74 (0.09%) than the support at $10.65 (0.75%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance will release earnings AMC on Monday, April 29, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $0.350. We will update the financials statements for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 2.41% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock A Buy?
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock.
Current score: -2.686 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance of Friday, April 26, 2024
| Fair opening price April 26, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $10.74 ( 0.109%) | $10.73 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ARI
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 10.86 | 1.18 % | |
| R2 | 10.81 | 0.771 % | ||
| R1 | 10.79 | 0.518 % | ||
| Current price: | 10.73 | |||
| Support | S1 | 10.70 | -0.301 % | |
| S2 | 10.67 | -0.554 % | ||
| S3 | 10.63 | -0.96 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 11.16 | 4.01 % | |
| R2 | 11.01 | 2.61 % | ||
| R1 | 10.74 | 0.0932 % | ||
| Current price | 10.73 | |||
| Support | S1 | 10.65 | -0.746% | |
| S2 | 10.63 | -0.93% | ||
| S3 | 10.51 | -2.05% |
ARI Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 12, 2024 | Mar 27, 2024 | Apr 15, 2024 | $0.350 | 3.31% |
| 2 | Dec 12, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | Jan 12, 2024 | $0.350 | 2.99% |
| 3 | Sep 12, 2023 | Sep 28, 2023 | Oct 13, 2023 | $0.350 | 3.47% |
| 4 | Jun 13, 2023 | Jun 29, 2023 | Jul 14, 2023 | $0.350 | 2.98% |
| 5 | Mar 14, 2023 | Mar 30, 2023 | Apr 14, 2023 | $0.350 | 3.81% |
FAQ
Click here for our free guide on how to buy Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Stock.
