Conn Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Weaker technical forecast for Conn as stock downgraded to Hold/Accumulate.
(Updated on Apr 25, 2024)
The Conn stock price fell by -4.97% on the last day (Thursday, 25th Apr 2024) from $3.82 to $3.63. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 7.39% from a day low at $3.52 to a day high of $3.78. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -9.93% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 24 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 60 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $217.46 thousand.
The stock lies the upper part of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $3.84 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -29.64% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $1.64 and $2.70 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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CONN Signals & Forecast
The Conn stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $3.71. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $3.47. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday, March 18, 2024, and so far it has risen 19.80%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Conn gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs".
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Conn stock
Conn finds support from accumulated volume at $3.52 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.260 between high and low, or 7.39%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 7.11%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $3.53 (-2.84%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 27 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (CONN) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 26th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 26th we expect Conn to open at $3.64, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $3.34 and $3.92, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.288 (+/-7.95%) up or down from last closing price. If Conn takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 15.89% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $3.70 (1.93%) than the support at $3.52 (3.03%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Conn stock A Buy?
Conn holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.509 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Conn of Friday, April 26, 2024
| Fair opening price April 26, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $3.64 ( 0.367%) | $3.63 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for CONN
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 3.90 | 7.53 % | |
| R2 | 3.80 | 4.79 % | ||
| R1 | 3.74 | 3.10 % | ||
| Current price: | 3.63 | |||
| Support | S1 | 3.54 | -2.37 % | |
| S2 | 3.48 | -4.06 % | ||
| S3 | 3.38 | -6.80 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 4.05 | 11.57 % | |
| R2 | 4.03 | 11.02 % | ||
| R1 | 3.70 | 1.93 % | ||
| Current price | 3.63 | |||
| Support | S1 | 3.52 | -3.03% | |
| S2 | 3.34 | -7.99% | ||
| S3 | 3.20 | -11.85% |
FAQ
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