IVR - INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC Tue 21'st Feb 2017
Strong Buy Candidate
Stock analysis for Tue 21'st Feb 2017 (Updated daily)
Buy candidate since 2017-02-09
INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC Stock Analysis
INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC gained 0.84% in the last trading day, rising from USD 15.52 to USD 15.65. The price has risen in 5 of the last 10 days days and is up by 3.85% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased in the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 42 610 more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 649 508 shares bought and sold for approximately USD 10.16 million.
INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC is the upper part of a wide and horizontal trend and normally this would pose a good selling opportunity, but a break-up through the top trend line at USD 15.91 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift may be expected. Given the current horizontal trend you can expect INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC with 90% probability to be traded between USD 14.71 and USD 16.10 at the end of this period with 90% probability. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the roof. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
Only positive signals in the chart today. INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at USD 15.50 and USD 14.97. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday January 31, 2017, which indicates further gains until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.
* Golden Star Signal* is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and priceline meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The stock holds a RSI14 at 79 and is currently being overbought on RSI. This does not have to be a sales signal as many stocks may go both long and hard while being overbought on the RSI. It is therefore important to evaluate the history of the share as it may tell you something about the RSI-sensitiveness.
Support & Resistance
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at USD 14.81 and USD 14.79. On the upside the stock meets some resistance just above today's level from accumulated volume at USD 15.75 and USD 15.76.
There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC finds support just below today's level at 14.81. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at 14.79 and 14.71. The stock is about to test the resistance from accumulated volume at USD 15.75 and this may cause the stock to take a minor break or get into a more sideways move for a few days.
This stock is usually traded at good volume, and with minor daily changes the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved USD 0.17 (1.10%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 1.68%.
The stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this will pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought and the RSI is still moving upwards. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trendposition increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely, and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stoploss: USD 14.87 (-4.98%) ( criteria: risk and position in trend)
INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC holds several positive signals and is considered to be a good choice at current levels. We expect the stock to perform very well in the short-term period. We have upgraded our recommendation for this stock since last evaluation from a Buy Candidate to a Strong Buy Candidate.