Serco Group plc Forecast and Stock Analysis
Technical SRP.L stock analysis for March 22, 2019.
Serco Group plc fell by -2.93% in the last day from £132.90 to £129.00 The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -3.44% for this period. Volume fell in the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. In the last day the trading volume fell by -1.65 million shares and in total 1.32 million shares bought and sold for approximately £170.08 million.
Close price at the end of the last trading day (Friday, 22nd Mar 2019) of the SRP.L stock was £129.00. This is 2.93% less than the trading day before Thursday, 21st Mar 2019.
During day the stock fluctuated 3.65% from a day low at £128.60 to a day high of £133.30.
30 day high of the SRP.L stock price was £138.30 and low was £114.00.
90 day high was £138.30 and low was £93.70.
52 week high for the Serco Group plc - £138.30 and low - £83.60.
Serco Group plc lies in the lower part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this will normally pose a very good buying opportunity. A break down the bottom trend line at £128.88 will firstly indicate a slower raising rate, but may also be a early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 35.51% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between £174.65 and £196.74 at the end of this period.
Serco Group plc holds a sales signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term moving average at approximately £131.41. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately £124.82. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sales signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sales signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday March 21, 2019, which indicates further falls until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The stock currently holds a RSI14 at 29 and is oversold on RSI14. The stock being oversold is no guarantee for instant reaction up as some stocks may be oversold for a long time. It is important to review the previous RSI-history to get an indication of the RSI-sensitiveness.
Support & Resistance
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at £121.70 and £114.50.
There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Serco Group plc finds support just below today's level at £121.70. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at £114.50 and £111.50.
This stock is usually traded at good volume, and with minor daily changes the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved £4.70 (3.65%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 1.81%.
Serco Group plc is oversold on RSI14 (29). Some stocks may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.
Our recommended stoploss: £121.59 (-5.75%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. Low RSI14 is 29 which reduces the risk some. There is a sell signal from pivot top found 1 days ago.)
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Evaluation: Buy Candidate
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for this stock to perform well in the short-term. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our recommendation for this stock since last evaluation from a Strong Buy Candidate to a Buy Candidate.