Vince Holding Corp Forecast and Stock Analysis
Technical VNCE stock analysis for February 15, 2019.
| Shorts | 11.43% ( 2019-01-31 ) |
| Cash | n/a |
| Loans | n/a |
| Beta | 1.91 |
| ROA | 28.88 |
Vince Holding Corp gained 2.62% in the last trading day, rising from $13.35 to $13.70 The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 16% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased in the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 33 252 more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 33 252 shares bought and sold for approximately $455 552.00.
Close price at the end of the last trading day (Friday, 15th Feb 2019) of the VNCE stock was $13.70. This is 2.62% more than the trading day before Thursday, 14th Feb 2019.
During day the stock fluctuated 8.62% from a day low at $13.34 to a day high of $14.49.
30 day high of the VNCE stock price was $14.49 and low was $10.60.
90 day high was $14.49 and low was $8.63.
52 week high for the Vince Holding Corp - $24.19 and low - $7.88.
Trend
Vince Holding Corp lies in the upper part of a very wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $14.51 will firstly indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 2.48% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $9.60 and $14.87 at the end of this period.
Signals
Only positive signals in the chart today. Vince Holding Corp holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at $12.90 and $11.48. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday January 29, 2019, which indicates further gains until a new top pivot has been found. Vince Holding Corp has rising volume and follows the last lift in the price. This is considered to be a technical positive sign as volume should follow the price-formation. Higher liquidity also reduces the general risk.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI14 is 86 and the stock is extremely overbought on RSI14, but may also ontinue to gain. Some stocks see their best performance while being overbought, but very seldom does RSI remain so high for a long time without short corrections. Risk has therefore increased and larger daily movements can be expected for the next couple of days.
Support & Resistance
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $11.12 and $10.98.
There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Vince Holding Corp finds support just below today's level at $11.12. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $10.98 and $10.45.
Risk
This stock may move much during a day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $1.15 between high and low, or 8.62%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 4.31%.
The stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this will pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stoploss: $13.17 (-3.85%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 86 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from pivot bottom found 13 days ago.)
Overall risk:
Very Low Low Medium High Very High
Evaluation: Buy Candidate
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for this stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our recommendation for this stock since last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy Candidate.
