Ameresco Inc Stock Forecast
Ameresco Inc stock downgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Sell Candidate after Thursday trading session.
(Updated on Apr 25, 2024)
The Ameresco Inc stock price fell by -1.46% on the last day (Thursday, 25th Apr 2024) from $21.29 to $20.98. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 5.31% from a day low at $19.98 to a day high of $21.04. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -7.33% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -127 thousand shares and in total, 304 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $6.37 million.
The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -3.38% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $17.00 and $23.90 at the end of this 3-month period.
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AMRC Signals & Forecast
There are mixed signals in the stock today. The Ameresco Inc stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $21.23. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $19.75. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, April 24, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.46%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
A sell signal from a double top formation was found on Monday, April 01, 2024 and based on theory for this formation the price should fall by -36.96% to $13.22 within 33 trading days since signal was issued (Friday, April 26, 2024).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Ameresco Inc stock
Ameresco Inc finds support from accumulated volume at $20.96 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $1.06 between high and low, or 5.31%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 6.26%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (AMRC) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 26th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 26th we expect Ameresco Inc to open at $20.67, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $19.60 and $22.36, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.38 (+/-6.56%) up or down from last closing price. If Ameresco Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 13.12% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $20.96 (0.10%) than the resistance at $21.25 (1.29%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Ameresco Inc stock A Buy?
Ameresco Inc holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -1.853 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Ameresco Inc of Friday, April 26, 2024
| Fair opening price April 26, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $20.67 ( 1.49%) | $20.98 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for AMRC
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 21.73 | 3.56 % | |
| R2 | 21.32 | 1.63 % | ||
| R1 | 21.07 | 0.439 % | ||
| Current price: | 20.98 | |||
| Support | S1 | 20.26 | -3.42 % | |
| S2 | 20.01 | -4.62 % | ||
| S3 | 19.61 | -6.55 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 22.74 | 8.39 % | |
| R2 | 22.64 | 7.91 % | ||
| R1 | 21.25 | 1.29 % | ||
| Current price | 20.98 | |||
| Support | S1 | 20.96 | -0.0953% | |
| S2 | 20.11 | -4.15% | ||
| S3 | 19.54 | -6.86% |
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