Maire Tecnimont Shares Jump 6% as Kepler Cheuvreux Calls Iran War Selloff Unwarranted

Shares of Maire Tecnimont (MTCM) rallied more than 6% after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the Italian energy engineering firm's rating from hold to buy. The boost came as the broker flagged the recent selloff linked to tensions in Iran as exaggerated and unjustified, given Maire's resilient fundamentals.

Trading at around €12.84, the firm's stock price has been hit hard-down nearly 20%-since conflict flared in Iran. Still, Kepler Cheuvreux's new €16 price target implies a 24.6% upside from current levels, undeterred by regional strife.

Operationally, Maire has sidestepped any significant disruptions from the Middle Eastern war. The Middle East accounted for roughly 40% of Maire's project backlog at the end of 2025, spread over five contracts all safeguarded by force majeure clauses. This means delays may affect revenue timing rather than erode profit margins.

The company's order book looks solid, with a target of €9 billion in new contracts for the year. Close to €4.7 billion is already locked in, while most remaining prospects sit outside the fragile Middle East zone, mainly in Latin America-reducing exposure to geopolitical risk.

According to Kepler Cheuvreux's projections, Maire's adjusted net profit should climb from €335.8 million in 2026 to €383.1 million in 2027, reaching €426.6 million by 2028. Corresponding adjusted EPS forecasts also outpace consensus estimates, signaling growing earnings strength.

Free cash flow is expected to improve as well, rising to over €350 million by 2028. Valuation multiples look appealing, with an estimated forward P/E dropping from 12.6 times in 2026 to 9.9 times in 2028, while dividend yield could increase from 4.8% to 6.1% during the same period.

On the strategic front, Kepler Cheuvreux remains bullish on Maire's subsidiary NextChem, highlighting two pending acquisitions. Speculation about a potential NextChem IPO in late 2026 or early 2027 aims to finance expansion and capital investment initiatives.

With a market cap of €4.2 billion and daily trading volumes averaging €18.6 million, Maire Tecnimont is showing signs of recovering confidence among investors, despite a challenging geopolitical backdrop that knocked its share price off earlier highs.