Markets This Week: Warsh's First Fed Meeting Takes Center Stage

This week brings a major shift for markets as Kevin Warsh runs his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Fed chair. And this could set the tone for monetary policy for months to come.

The Big Event: Fed Meeting (Wednesday)

The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with a rate decision due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, but the real story is what Warsh says—and how he says it. He took the job back in January when rate cuts looked likely. Since then, the picture has changed sharply: the conflict with Iran has driven energy prices up, pushing inflation to a three-year high, while job growth has stayed surprisingly strong. Some Fed officials have floated the idea of raising rates to keep inflation in check without hurting employment.

One thing to watch: Warsh has signaled he prefers less detailed Fed guidance and forecasts. If he follows through, markets may become more reactive to incoming economic data, since investors will have fewer official signals to lean on.

Key Economic Data: Retail Sales (Wednesday)

May retail sales figures land Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. In April, retail spending rose a modest 0.5%, driven mostly by gas station purchases—even as consumers pumped less gas overall and cut back on discretionary shopping. This week's report will show whether that cautious spending pattern continued into May.

Earnings to Watch

• La-Z-Boy (LZB) – Tuesday after the close, call Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Watch for signs of pressure from shipping costs, following a weak outlook from rival MillerKnoll.
• CarMax (KMX) – Wednesday before the open, call at 8:00 a.m. ET. New CEO Keith Barr is under pressure from activist investor Starboard Value.
• Jabil (JBL) – Wednesday before the open, call at 8:30 a.m. ET. Shares are up roughly 65% this year on AI-driven demand for its circuit boards.
• Kroger (KR) – Thursday, call at 8 a.m. ET. New CEO John Foran is focused on cutting prices to win back market share.
• Accenture (ACN) – Thursday, call at 8 a.m. ET. Investors are watching for impact from federal spending cuts and AI disruption to consulting demand.

Stocks ended last week higher despite some midweek pressure, helped by optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran resolution and the blockbuster SpaceX IPO - the largest ever, with shares closing Friday above their offer price. Oil prices pulled back on Friday as well.

Don't Forget

Markets are closed Friday for Juneteenth - plan your trading week accordingly.