Oxford BioMedica Holds Steady on 2026 Revenue and EBITDA Forecasts Amid US Expansion

Oxford BioMedica (OXB) has stuck to its guns on the 2026 outlook, expecting revenues between £220 million and £240 million at constant exchange rates. Notably, 60% of this figure is already locked in through client contracts, and if you factor in the risk-adjusted pipeline, coverage exceeds 80%. This points to some decent sales visibility heading into the year.

The company is predicting an EBITDA margin around 10%, although the first half will take a hit due to technology transfer expenses and maintenance shutdowns. Those transfer costs are tied to spreading tech capabilities across Oxford BioMedica's network - which may drag the initial period's earnings into negative territory. The plan is for profitability to pick up significantly in the second half, shooting for a double-digit margin.

Capex expectations for 2026-27 have been trimmed to roughly £50 million, down from the £60 million initially forecast. The catalyst here is Oxford BioMedica's acquisition of a new site in Durham, US, giving a more cost-effective avenue to boost stateside capacity. So, expansion ambitions are intact but delivered with a bit more budget discipline.

Looking back at 2025, Oxford BioMedica reported net revenue of £168.7 million, a hefty 31% rise on a reported basis and a 33% jump at constant currency. This edged ahead of the original £160-170 million revenue guidance. Manufacturing services pulled in £81.1 million, up 19%, driven by increased commercial product batches and pre-launch client activity.

Development services saw an even sharper climb, hitting £60.1 million-a 27% rise thanks to clients pushing ahead with pipeline advancement, validation, and process characterization work. Procurement services exploded to £22.3 million, quadrupling from the previous year as clients geared up for commercial launches. Meanwhile, licenses, milestones, and royalties dropped 27% to £5.2 million, reflecting timing on milestones and a softening of royalties from the maturing Kymriah product.

Despite this solid topline, EBITDA showed a modest £2.3 million, helped by a one-off £9.9 million gain from the US site acquisition. Yet underlying EBITDA was negative £2.5 million, or positive £3.3 million when removing currency swings. Cash reserves stood at £96.9 million by year-end, with RBC Capital Markets forecasting Oxford BioMedica's balance sheet to hold above £60 million even at its low point in 2026.

The order intake clocked a 20% increase to £224 million in 2025, and the order book surged 36% to £204 million. Oxford BioMedica currently manages 48 programs from 40 clients, up from 44 programs and 37 clients six months earlier. Late-stage clinical and commercial pipelines continue to expand, reflecting client confidence.

The company anticipates sustaining revenue growth of 25-30% annually in 2027 and 2028, aiming for EBITDA margins to climb above 20% next year and approach 30% within half a decade. RBC Capital Markets keeps an Outperform rating with a 1,170p price target, while shares closed recently at 606p - a gap that suggests optimism about future growth in a gradually strengthening margin picture.