Wall Street Pauses Before Jackson Hole, Walmart Earnings in Focus

U.S. stock futures are mostly flat Thursday morning as the market waits for the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole gathering to get underway and eyes fresh labor-market numbers. A second item on the calendar - Walmart's quarterly update.

Jackson Hole: Powell in the spotlight

Central bankers and money-market eyes converge on Wyoming this week. The real headline is Jerome Powell's Friday remarks - his last speech here while still serving as Fed chair - and whether he signals anything about a September rate cut. After a softer-than-expected payrolls print earlier this month, markets lifted the odds of a September cut, and that repricing is what traders will be parsing.

Market pricing currently shows roughly an 80% chance of a quarter-point cut at the Sept. 17 meeting, a touch lower than a day earlier. Minutes from the Fed's July meeting also remind investors that policymakers remain worried about both inflation and labor-market strength; most participants favored keeping the federal funds target range at 4.25%-4.50% at the last decision.

Political friction has crept into the story as well. President Donald Trump has openly criticized Powell for not cutting rates sooner and has pushed for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook over allegations raised by a political ally. Those developments have revived questions about the Fed's independence, at least in market chatter.

Futures and data in a tight range

At about 03:00 ET (07:00 GMT) on Thursday, S&P 500 futures were down roughly 1 point (around 0.1%), Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 12 points (0.1%), while Dow futures sat about 50 points higher (0.1%).

The major cash indices were mixed on Wednesday: the Dow eked out a small gain while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished lower, extending a recent pullback for the broad-market benchmark as tech names weighed.

Weekly initial jobless claims, due later in the session, are expected to tick up slightly. Existing-home sales for July and the Philly Fed business index are also on the docket - all likely to be digested in the context of Powell's remarks.

Walmart (NYSE:WMT), the world’s largest retailer, reports Q2 results Thursday before markets open, seen as a key gauge of U.S. consumer health. Analysts expect earnings of 74 cents a share, up 11% year-over-year, on revenue of $176.16 billion, up 4%. The company has beaten estimates for 11 straight quarters, supported by its low-price grocery model, though management may turn cautious as the labor market cools and inflation rises. This week’s retail earnings have been mixed, with Home Depot posting solid results while Target fell after naming a new CEO and reaffirming lowered guidance.

Meta pauses AI hiring spree

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) confirmed it has paused hiring for its new AI division, dialing back the recent hiring surge that accompanied big AI investments.

The company has flagged as much as $72 billion in AI-related spending this year, a level that has prompted investors to question whether such outlays - plus heavy stock-based comp - will drag on returns.

Analysts and market participants have been vocal about the risk: research noted earlier this week suggested a high share of AI projects remain unprofitable, a reminder that scale and revenue realization are not the same thing.

Oil nudges higher as U.S. demand shows up

Oil climbed on signs of healthy U.S. demand. Brent futures were trading near $67.30 a barrel (up about 0.3%) and U.S. WTI around $63.22 (up about 0.8%).

U.S. crude stocks fell by about 6 million barrels last week, and gasoline inventories dropped roughly 2.7 million barrels - moves that point to solid summer driving activity and helped offset slower global growth concerns.

Geopolitical notes remain in play: any progress toward a Ukraine settlement would likely soften oil prices, while continued sanctions and the possibility of tougher measures on Russian oil buyers keep upside risk on the table.

Powell speaks Friday: markets are pricing an ~80% chance of a Sept. 17 quarter-point cut. What he says and how he frames the Fed's view of jobs and inflation will set the tone for the next stretch of trading.