Tesla Q4 2024 Deliveries: Key Insights

UBS (NYSE:UBS) forecasts Tesla to announce Q4 2024 delivery numbers on January 2, predicting 510,000 units delivered. This represents a 5% year-over-year (YoY) and 10% quarter-over-quarter increase. While this estimate is slightly below the Visible Alpha consensus of 512,000, it aligns with broader investor expectations, which range from 500,000 to 510,000.

Interestingly, analysts believe Tesla's delivery numbers will have less impact on stock performance than in the past. The bank attributes this shift to the strong AI-driven narrative surrounding the company, which now outweighs traditional delivery metrics.

Tesla’s energy storage business continues to show promise. UBS projects deployments of 9.1 gigawatt-hours (GWh) for Q4, a notable 32% increase from the previous quarter. This forecast is in line with Visible Alpha's estimate of 9.6 GWh. However, UBS warns that energy storage growth tends to be "lumpy," making it less predictable for investors.

Looking Ahead to the Earnings Call

Tesla’s upcoming earnings call, expected at the end of January, is set to draw significant investor attention. Analysts expect the focus to shift from Q4 delivery numbers to CEO Elon Musk's guidance for 2025 and updates on AI developments. Tesla’s ambitious 2025 growth target of 20-30%—or 2.2 to 2.4 million units—exceeds both UBS's and consensus forecasts of 1.9 and 2.0 million units.

New models could play a pivotal role in meeting these projections. A lower-priced vehicle, expected to launch early next year, and a refreshed Model Y may drive Tesla’s growth in 2025.

Regional trends reveal a mixed picture. Growth in China remains steady, supported by promotional efforts. In contrast, Europe faces softness due to slower exports, and U.S. deliveries are expected to remain flat. UBS also flags potential changes to EV tax credits in the U.S., which could influence demand in the short term.