Tesla's Road to $2 Trillion: Will Autonomous Vehicles Drive a $500 Share Price?

In a bold assessment, Dan Ives from Wedbush forecasts that Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) could be on the brink of achieving a staggering $2 trillion market capitalization by the close of 2026, driven by advancements in autonomous vehicle technology. Despite experiencing significant challenges recently, with stock prices tumbling over 20% this year alone, Ives maintains a positive outlook, reinforcing his outperform rating alongside a price target of $500 per share. This projection implies a potential upside of over 55%, especially as the vehicle concluded Wednesday trading at $322.05.

The anticipated catalyst for this growth is the advent of Tesla's autonomous vehicle initiative, which Ives highlights as entering a "golden era." This pivotal moment kicks off Sunday in Austin with the launch of approximately 20 Model Y robotaxis. Ives envisions that the expansion of this robotaxi service is just the beginning; he estimates that it will extend into about 25 U.S. cities within the year. He specifically notes the upcoming full-scale production of Cybercabs, anticipated to commence next year, will be a crucial element in monetizing Tesla's vision of an autonomous future.

Looking at the broader implications, Ives suggests that this transformative phase could add a staggering $1 trillion to Tesla's valuation as the company positions itself as a leader in the autonomous vehicle sector. He acknowledges that while there may be hurdles along the way, Tesla's unmatched global scale will enable it to dominate the market. Moreover, there exists the potential for Tesla to license its technology to other automotive manufacturers domestically and internationally.

In addition to technological advancements, Ives foresees a favorable shift in the regulatory landscape that could bolster Tesla's progress. Citing the evolving dynamic between President Donald Trump and Tesla's CEO Elon Musk, he believes that Trump's desire to maintain U.S. superiority in the AI sector may lead to regulatory reforms that simplify federal approval processes for autonomous vehicles. This situation, which Ives characterizes as a dramatic relationship worthy of a soap opera, is expected to facilitate a smoother pathway for Tesla's ambitions.

As the trading community watches closely, Tesla shares have already shown signs of resilience with a modest premarket uptick exceeding 1%. However, analysts remain divided; of the 55 professionals monitoring TSLA, 25 recommend it as a buy or strong buy, while 19 suggest holding, and 11 rate it as underperform or sell. With Ives' bullish expectations ring in the ears of investors, one can only wonder if this futuristic icon will indeed steer its way to a $2 trillion valuation.