Wells Fargo Raises Nvidia (NVDA) Target to $220 - 20% Upside as 15% China Revenue Deal Could Unlock $8B/Quarter Ahead of Aug. 27 Results

Wells Fargo analysts are betting big on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) - they bumped their price target from $185 to $220, a jump that implies roughly 20% upside from last Friday's close. The upgrade comes ahead of Nvidia's F2Q26 earnings, due after the bell on Aug. 27, and rests on two developments that could quickly change revenue math for the company.

First, reports surfaced that Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) agreed to give the U.S. government a 15% slice of revenue from certain China sales - specifically Nvidia's H20 chips and AMD's MI308 chips - in exchange for export licenses. That arrangement, if it plays out as described, would reopen a sizable market that had been constrained by export restrictions.

Aaron Rakers at Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) lays out the math plainly: the firm assumes Nvidia can claw back an estimated $8 billion per quarter that the H20 China ban had threatened, and that recovery could be complete by F4Q26 (January). Rakers also expects China demand to continue growing beyond that baseline.

Wells Fargo's case isn't just based on the licensing chatter. The analyst points to stronger-than-expected U.S. imports of automated data processing machines in June and robust ADP-related exports from Taiwan in July - plus publicly reported hyperscale capital expenditures - as corroborating signals that enterprise AI spending is still ramping.

Market reaction has been muted so far. Nvidia dipped about 1% in premarket trade Monday, despite a monster run: roughly +56% over the last three months and about +36% year-to-date. Short-term volatility around the upcoming print is clearly a factor; sentiment has been leaning toward upside and estimates are getting tested.

Put simply: a path to resumed H20 sales in China would materially alter revenue forecasts for the rest of the fiscal year. Wells Fargo's $220 target reflects that scenario - and its view that the macro and capex datapoints line up with continued strength.

Will Nvidia hit the numbers on Aug. 27 and convince the market that the China revenue hole is truly filled by January? That's the question traders will parse in real time.