Vonovia Se Stock Earnings Reports

Key points for investors:

- Strong operating performance: 9M 2025 total EBITDA +6.4% and EBT +6.8%; management says the company is on track to reach the upper end of 2025 guidance.

- Organic rent growth: Management expects a material step-up in organic rent growth toward ~5% by 2028 (Philip: additional irrevocable rent claims and investments drive this; Rolf: potentially above 5%). 2026 underlying booked uplift of ~3% (with 0.4pp of locked-in increases that are phased by rent caps).

- Investment program: Vonovia plans to scale investments to ~€2bn p.a. by 2028 to accelerate investment-driven rent growth; management cites historical investment cash-on-cash of ~6–7% and average operating yield on completed investments ~7.1% (2014–2024).

- Platform & efficiency advantage: Rolf emphasized Vonovia’s integrated platform, scale and industrialized operations. Management claims superior gross-to-net yield leakage (0.4pp group, 0.2pp Germany), translating into ~€400m of additional EBITDA vs. peer leakage.

- Non-rental businesses: Management expects non-rental EBITDA to recover and expand (target back to pre‑Deutsche Wohnen levels by 2028); value-add (craftsmen, energy) and recurring sales are growing and on track.

- Capital structure & liquidity: EPRA NTA composition changed due to a new tax law shifting ~€2.3bn from deferred tax liabilities to equity. Debt metrics broadly stable; internal ICR target is 3.5x (bond covenant ICR = 1.8x). Management assumes refinancing rates around ~4% in planning and is open to limited use of convertible instruments (treated as debt).

- Transactions & disposals: Transaction market described as normalized (more activity in smaller deals); H2 expected to show stronger valuation uplifts than H1. Noncore disposals continue selectively.

- Development outlook: Development-to-sell margins normalized (target gross margins ~15–20%, IRRs >10%); pipeline and ramp-up expected to contribute more materially from 2027 onward.

- Management transition: Rolf Buch confirmed this was his last earnings call; Luka joins as incoming CEO (assumes role in January).

- Governance / payout: Dividend policy unchanged (50% of EBT plus liquidity); no new dividend guidance provided today.

Investor implications: The company signals sustainable earnings and value growth driven by accelerating organic rents and scaled investments. The principal risks are refinancing/interest rate environment (management assumes ~4% refinancing costs in planning) and regulatory constraints on implementing rent increases (Kappungsgrenze) which phase-in some upside. Balance-sheet metrics are managed with a particular focus on ICR and preserving investment capacity for the growth program.