Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc Stock Forecast
Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc stock downgraded from Buy Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on May 03, 2024)
The Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc stock price gained 0.159% on the last trading day (Friday, 3rd May 2024), rising from $12.57 to $12.59. It has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 0.88% from a day low at $12.50 to a day high of $12.61. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 4.66% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -3 thousand shares and in total, 30 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $382.69 thousand. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stockhas broken the falling short-term trend up. Firstly a slower falling rate is indicated, but this may very well be an early signal of a trend shift. On the reaction, there will be support on the roof of the current trend broken, which is $12.45, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory $13.42 will be the next possible trend-top level and thereby pose a resistance level that may not be broken at the first attempt.
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CAF Signals & Forecast
The Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $12.31 and $12.10. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, March 22, 2024, and so far it has risen 5.98%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Volume fell during the last trading day while the price increased. This causes a divergence and may be considered as an early warning, but it may also not.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc stock
Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc finds support from accumulated volume at $12.26 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and therefore the general risk is considered very low. However, be aware of low or falling volume and make sure to keep an eye on the stock During the last day, the stock moved $0.110 between high and low, or 0.88%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.40%
The Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc stock is extremely overbought on RSI14 (82). Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but since the stock has broken the trend up, the chance for a major correction due to high RSI is very small as the stock will find support at the trend broken.
Our recommended stop-loss: $12.11 (-3.78%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. The RSI14 is 82 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 29 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (CAF) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 6th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 6th we expect Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc to open at $12.57, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $12.44 and $12.74, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.147 (+/-1.17%) up or down from last closing price. If Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.34% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $12.26 (2.62%) than the resistance at $13.01 (3.34%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc stock A Buy?
Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.762 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc of Monday, May 6, 2024
Fair opening price May 6, 2024 | Current price |
---|---|
$12.57 ( 0.185%) | $12.59 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for CAF
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 12.68 | 0.688 % | |
R2 | 12.63 | 0.355 % | ||
R1 | 12.61 | 0.148 % | ||
Current price: | 12.59 | |||
Support | S1 | 12.52 | -0.519 % | |
S2 | 12.50 | -0.725 % | ||
S3 | 12.46 | -1.06 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 13.23 | 5.08 % | |
R2 | 13.04 | 3.57 % | ||
R1 | 13.01 | 3.34 % | ||
Current price | 12.59 | |||
Support | S1 | 12.26 | -2.62% | |
S2 | 12.25 | -2.70% | ||
S3 | 12.22 | -2.94% |
CAF Dividend Payout History
# | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dec 05, 2023 | Dec 14, 2023 | Dec 27, 2023 | $0.122 | 1.00% |
2 | Dec 06, 2022 | Dec 15, 2022 | Dec 27, 2018 | $0.0030 | 0.0166% |
3 | Dec 09, 2021 | Dec 16, 2021 | Dec 29, 2021 | $1.34 | 6.48% |
4 | Dec 08, 2020 | Dec 17, 2020 | Dec 29, 2020 | $2.31 | 10.68% |
5 | Dec 12, 2019 | Dec 19, 2019 | Dec 27, 2019 | $0.82 | 3.82% |
FAQ
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