NMI Holdings Inc Stock Forecast
NMI Holdings Inc stock downgraded from Buy Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on May 17, 2024)
The NMI Holdings Inc stock price gained 1.51% on the last trading day (Friday, 17th May 2024), rising from $33.72 to $34.23. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.78% from a day low at $33.66 to a day high of $34.26. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 5.29% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 29 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 285 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $9.75 million.
The stock lies in the upper part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $34.47 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 12.30% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $34.63 and $38.71 at the end of this 3-month period.
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NMIH Signals & Forecast
The NMI Holdings Inc stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $33.72 and $31.61. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, April 17, 2024, and so far it has risen 16.03%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for NMI Holdings Inc stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $31.85 and $31.26. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, NMI Holdings Inc finds support just below today's level at $31.85. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $31.26 and $29.64.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.600 between high and low, or 1.78%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.52%.
The NMI Holdings Inc stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stop-loss: $32.61 (-4.74%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 81 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 22 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (NMIH) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 20th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 20th we expect NMI Holdings Inc to open at $34.05, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $33.59 and $34.87, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.644 (+/-1.88%) up or down from last closing price. If NMI Holdings Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.76% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ $31.85, some $2.38 (6.95%) from the current price of $34.23, our system finds the risk reward attractive.
Is NMI Holdings Inc stock A Buy?
NMI Holdings Inc holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.000 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Zero in score indicates that our system is expecting high volatility and risk for the following trading day. Given the latest developments, we cannot determine the next direction as it may go both ways.
Predicted Opening Price for NMI Holdings Inc of Monday, May 20, 2024
| Fair opening price May 20, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $34.05 ( 0.526%) | $34.23 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for NMIH
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 34.65 | 1.23 % | |
| R2 | 34.42 | 0.557 % | ||
| R1 | 34.28 | 0.144 % | ||
| Current price: | 34.23 | |||
| Support | S1 | 33.82 | -1.20 % | |
| S2 | 33.68 | -1.61 % | ||
| S3 | 33.45 | -2.28 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0 | . | |
| R2 | 0 | . | ||
| R1 | 0 | . | ||
| Current price | 34.23 | |||
| Support | S1 | 31.85 | -6.95% | |
| S2 | 31.26 | -8.68% | ||
| S3 | 29.64 | -13.41% |
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