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Median Household Income In July 2020

05:13am, Wednesday, 02'nd Sep 2020
Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in July 2020 is $65,672, a decrease of 0.2% from June 2020's initial estimate of $65,778.

Rationalization: Low Rates Justify High Valuations

01:23am, Wednesday, 02'nd Sep 2020
The basic premise of the interest rate/valuation argument has its roots in the Fed Model, which states that when the earnings yield on stocks is higher than the Treasury yield, you invest in stocks, a
The Fed’s “inflation running hot” memo has created a pivotal point in the market rally, and the resulting asset price inflation is exactly what the Fed intended.

July Income And Consumption

01:55am, Tuesday, 01'st Sep 2020
Consumption is almost to the nadir of the Great Financial Crisis. We still have a long way to go.

COVID-19 Drives Record Write-Downs In 1H 2020

03:12pm, Monday, 31'st Aug 2020
Corporate managers appear to be using COVID-19 as a justification for writing down assets in unusually large amounts.
8 out of 23 CEF sectors positive on price and 7 out of 23 sectors positive on NAV last week. Taxable munis gain while MLPs lag.
Industry group trends expanding; sector-level trends still supportive. Lack of new highs can make strength difficult to sustain.

... But Valuations Remain Compelling

04:40pm, Sunday, 30'th Aug 2020
The signs of excesses are too much to ignore. Don't pick a top, but reduce downside exposure in equity index products.

The 1-Minute Market Report - August 28, 2020

03:55pm, Sunday, 30'th Aug 2020
The stock market is climbing a wall of worry. Earnings are improving, but they're based on lowered expectations.
One factor about the equity market is its movements are often influenced by expectations. Economic news that is reported better than those expectations can impact broad equity market prices and earnin
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a wildly unpopular article laying out why, if the bulls could push the markets to new all-time highs, the next target would be 3,750.

Will A Contentious U.S. Election Rock Markets?

08:14am, Sunday, 30'th Aug 2020
COVID-19 continues to set to tone for the U.S. economy.
The stock market continues to reach new historic highs as the Federal Reserve continues to maintain the trust of investors that it will further support new, higher stock prices.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in July rose 1.03% and is down 1.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding
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