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At Close: Jun 03, 2026

What's Driving The Selloff In U.S. Markets?

01:52pm, Saturday, 05'th Sep 2020
Unpacking the August U.S. jobs report.

The Big 4 Economic Indicators: August Employment

01:43pm, Saturday, 05'th Sep 2020
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's (Sept. 4) release of Nonfarm Employment.

Making Sense Of Thursday's Market Rout

05:16am, Friday, 04'th Sep 2020
Today's 3.5% drop was a big deal. It was the 71st worst out of 17,783 trading days since 1950.

Don't Presume On History

04:55am, Friday, 04'th Sep 2020
The idea that buying growth stocks at any price is the prudent thing stems from the idea that you can't earn much in bonds, so you must buy stocks.
This old maxim has been around so long, it has spooked investors into selling in September. Of course, Thursday's market action did not do anything to engender confidence.
Is it going to be inflation or deflation? The two schools of thought are poles apart in their thesis of what effect central bank interventions will have.

September Will Be Ugly

06:58am, Thursday, 03'rd Sep 2020
This is a weekly series focused on analyzing the previous week’s economic data releases. The objective is to concentrate on leading indicators of economic activity to determine whether the economy i

Analyzing U.S. Equity Market Peaks

10:18pm, Wednesday, 02'nd Sep 2020
The S&P 500 share index has gained around 50% from its March 23 low of 2237, although the sharpest appreciation was already realized by June.

World Markets Update: August 31, 2020

03:32pm, Wednesday, 02'nd Sep 2020
Six of eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through August 31, 2020. The top performer is China's Shanghai with a gain of 11.33%.
Dr. David Kelly said that he was expecting a 13%-15% Q3 '20 GDP growth rate, after the expected sharp collapse in Q2 '20.
During the past couple of months, I discussed why the 35% decline in March was only a correction and not a bear market.

August/September 2020 Update

06:22am, Wednesday, 02'nd Sep 2020
The world still remains mired in a COVID-vaccine-is-coming holding pattern while the Federal Reserve and US Treasury continue to prop-up stocks, bonds, and hard assets with very low interest rate poli
Fed Chair Jay Powell announced a new inflation target policy that allows for inflation to rise moderately over its 2% target for a period of time.

Median Household Income In July 2020

05:13am, Wednesday, 02'nd Sep 2020
Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in July 2020 is $65,672, a decrease of 0.2% from June 2020's initial estimate of $65,778.

Rationalization: Low Rates Justify High Valuations

01:23am, Wednesday, 02'nd Sep 2020
The basic premise of the interest rate/valuation argument has its roots in the Fed Model, which states that when the earnings yield on stocks is higher than the Treasury yield, you invest in stocks, a
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