Archer Aviation Soars to 3-Month High Amid Bullish Momentum, Raises Long-Term Growth Concerns

Technical Analysis

Archer Aviation (ACHR) exhibited strong bullish momentum on June 6, 2025, closing at $10.19, up 8.87%, reaching a 3-month high intraday of $10.21 from a low of $9.52. The 14-day RSI at 22 signals the stock is oversold, which likely fueled the recent rebound. The price is currently trading above both the 50-day moving average of $8.86 and the 200-day moving average of $7.02, indicating a sustained upward trend. The MACD of 0.90 confirms positive momentum. Support lies near $9.29, with immediate resistance around $10.60. Average daily volume of 28.30 million compared to today’s 41.03 million suggests increasing investor interest. The ATR is unusually high at 7.29, reflecting substantial intraday volatility.

For the next trading day (June 9, 2025), OHLC levels near the $10.00 to $10.60 resistance zone may see profit-taking or consolidation, but the bullish RSI and volume support further upside potential. Over the week, continued strength is probable if the $10.60 resistance breaks, possibly targeting the near-term highs around $13.50 as captured in consensus price targets.

Fundamental Analysis

Archer Aviation operates in the emerging electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) market, with a currently modest market cap of $6.11 billion. Despite the promising sector, fundamentals remain challenged: trailing twelve-month EPS is -$1.23 and the negative P/E of -9.05 reflects ongoing losses. No revenues or positive return on invested capital (ROIC) underscore the company’s early developmental stage and reliance on future scaling.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is markedly lower at approximately $2.01 per share, suggesting its intrinsic value is significantly below the current market price. This disconnect indicates that the market is currently pricing in substantial growth potential and operational execution that is yet to materialize. Upcoming earnings on August 14, 2025, will be a critical event for catalysts.

Recent strategic developments enhance long-term prospects: the production ramp-up of the Midnight eVTOL aircraft with a target of 10 units in 2025 aims to transition Archer from prototyping toward commercialization. Additionally, the AI partnership with Palantir hints at innovation integration that could improve operational efficacy and competitive advantage. Industry commentary highlights Archer as an early mover positioned to capitalize on urban air mobility trends over the next 3 years, despite the challenges of regulatory risk and capital intensity.

Intrinsic Value and Long-term Investment Potential

The stark contrast between intrinsic DCF value ($2.01) and the current market price (~$10.19) reflects significant speculative premium tied to growth assumptions. Long-term value depends on Archer’s ability to scale production, achieve revenue milestones, and secure market adoption in the eVTOL space — a nascent and capital-heavy sector with emerging regulatory frameworks. Success hinges on technological execution and broader infrastructure development for urban air mobility.

If Archer meets production targets and strategic partnership goals, intrinsic value could appreciate sharply. Conversely, persistent negative cash flow and operational delays could pressure valuation. Investors with high risk tolerance could view the stock as a high-growth speculative play, while valuation metrics require cautious monitoring.

Overall Evaluation

Archer Aviation currently represents a high-volatility growth stock showing positive short-term momentum and sectoral tailwinds. Technical indicators favor near-term gains above $10.00, potentially advancing toward consensus price targets near $13.50 within weeks. However, fundamental risk remains significant with ongoing losses and intrinsic value well below market price.

Given this tradeoff, Archer fits a Hold profile for investors already exposed, capitalizing on technical strength and sector promise while monitoring execution risk. New entrants seeking valuation support likely await improved earnings visibility and closer alignment of intrinsic and market value before increasing exposure. The market’s bullish stance is supported by analyst consensus ratings and heightened volume but tempered by core fundamental challenges.