Archer Aviation: Strong Growth Potential Amid Technical Mixed Signals and High Risk Evaluation

Technical Analysis

Archer Aviation (ACHR) closed at $10.00 on June 23, 2025, marginally down by 0.40%. The intraday range spanned $9.49 to $10.08. The stock trades above its 50-day moving average ($9.55) and significantly above its 200-day MA ($7.34), indicating medium- and long-term uptrends. The RSI at 52 signals a neutral momentum, devoid of extreme buying or selling pressure. The MACD remains negative (-0.17), suggesting that downward momentum still lingers. Average trading volume (31.13 million) closely matches the 33.7 million traded volume, reflecting stable liquidity. Important technical levels include a support at $9.99 and resistance at $11.16, with a stop-loss identified near $9.40. The ATR’s (7.83) high value signals substantial volatility, requiring disciplined risk management.

For the next trading day (June 24, 2025), the neutral RSI and proximity to support suggest a likelihood of sideways to mild recovery price action, potentially testing resistance at $11.16 if broader market conditions remain favorable. Over the upcoming week, the trend may hinge on volume and momentum shifts; the recent MACD negativity warns of short-term pullbacks but the technical positioning above moving averages supports a cautiously constructive outlook.

Fundamental Analysis

Archer Aviation operates in the emerging eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) air taxi sector, targeting commercial certification of its Midnight model within the next few years, a potentially transformative growth catalyst. The company recently completed an $850 million stock offering to bolster liquidity and finance commercial launch initiatives including infrastructure, AI aviation software, and the Launch Edition program, enhancing its operational runway and market positioning.

Despite these positives, the stock remains unprofitable with a trailing twelve months (TTM) EPS of -$1.23 and a negative P/E ratio of -8.13. The discounted cash flow (DCF) intrinsic valuation stands at roughly $2.01, significantly below the current trading price, highlighting a discrepancy between market optimism and fundamental cash flow expectations, likely reflecting the early-stage nature and high growth risk of the business model.

Consensus analyst targets cluster around $13.50, implying a roughly 35% upside from the current price. The institutional sentiment leans bullish with 7 buy and 2 hold ratings, no sell ratings, indicating confidence in the company’s long-term prospects driven by the innovative air mobility sector.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Potential

The DCF intrinsic estimate at $2.01 reveals that current valuations are heavily premised on future growth and successful market entry rather than near-term cash flow generation. Archer’s transformational technology in urban air mobility could redefine transportation, offering substantial long-term upside if regulatory approvals, infrastructure, and customer adoption materialize as anticipated. However, significant execution risks and capital requirements remain, underscoring the speculative nature of the investment at this stage.

Over a multi-year horizon, if Archer achieves commercial certification and market penetration, the stock could offer considerable returns tied to the expansion of the eVTOL market and defragmentation of urban transportation. The recent capital raise enhances liquidity, reducing immediate funding risk.

Overall Evaluation

Archer Aviation represents a growth-oriented, speculative play in the nascent eVTOL space. Technically, the stock maintains a bullish medium-term trend above critical moving averages, although near-term momentum indicators are mixed. Fundamentally, significant losses persist, and current prices languish well above intrinsic DCF valuations, reflecting high market expectations for future growth.

Given the balance of strong analyst consensus, robust liquidity from recent capital raising, and an innovative product pipeline, alongside sizeable execution risks and an expensive valuation relative to intrinsic value, Archer Aviation is positioned as a Hold candidate. It suits investors with a high-risk tolerance and a multi-year investment horizon who can withstand volatility and fundamental uncertainty while monitoring operational progress and regulatory milestones.