Evaluation of SPDR S&P 500 ETF downgraded after the last trading session.StockInvest.us, 4 months ago
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF price gained 0.46% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 3rd May 2022), rising from $414.48 to $416.38. , and has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the day the ETF fluctuated 1.35% from a day low at $413.36 to a day high of $418.93. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -6.44% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -58 million shares and in total, 100 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $41.72 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF is at the lower part of a wide and horizontal trend in the short term, and normally this may pose a good buying opportunity, though a breakdown through the bottom trend line at $410.96 will give a strong sell signal and a trend shift may be expected.Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect SPDR S&P 500 ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $403.81 and $450.32 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 29, 2022, and so far it has risen 1.06%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $418.94 and $440.10. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
SPDR S&P 500 finds support from accumulated volume at $416.25 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $5.57 between high and low, or 1.35%. For the last week, the ETF has had a daily average volatility of 2.48%.
SPDR S&P 500 holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.Check full SPY forecast and analysis here.