Evaluation of SPDR S&P 500 ETF downgraded after the last trading session.

StockInvest.us, 1 year ago


The SPDR S&P 500 ETF price fell by -0.22% on the last day (Friday, 17th Jun 2022) from $366.65 to $365.86. and has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the day the ETF fluctuated 1.99% from a day low at $362.17 to a day high of $369.38. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -10.88% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -23 million shares and in total, 112 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $40.85 billion.

The ETF lies in the lower of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $365.04 is broken, it will firstly indicate a stronger fall rate.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -16.00% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $306.63 and $339.33 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.


There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $378.83 and $400.29. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, June 02, 2022, and so far it has fallen -12.35%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the ETF may perform very badly in the next couple of days.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $7.21 between high and low, or 1.99%. For the last week, the ETF has had a daily average volatility of 2.26%.

SPDR S&P 500 is oversold on RSI14 (21). Some ETFS may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.

SPDR S&P 500 holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Strong Sell candidate.

Check full SPY forecast and analysis here.