Evaluation of SPY ETF downgraded after the last trading session.

The SPY ETF price fell by -0.87% on the last day (Thursday, 17th Nov 2022) from $395.34 to $391.91. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.23% from a day low at $390.14 to a day high of $394.95. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 5.63% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 8 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 53 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $20.74 billion.

The ETF lies the upper part of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $398.35 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -6.55% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $322.61 and $372.26 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

The SPY ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term moving average at approximately $393.01. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $376.56. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, November 15, 2022, and so far it has fallen -1.83%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $373.20 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This ETF is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the ETF moved $4.81 (1.23%) between high and low. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.30%.

SPY holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.