Evaluation of SPY ETF downgraded after the last trading session.

The SPY ETF price fell by -0.180% on the last day (Monday, 27th Nov 2023) from $455.30 to $454.48. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.311% from a day low at $454.08 to a day high of $455.49. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.15% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 24 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 50 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $22.50 billion.

The ETFis at the upper part of a wide and horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $455.25 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected.Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect SPY ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $406.84 and $452.10 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

The SPY ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $453.34 and $434.88. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, November 24, 2023, and so far it has fallen -0.180%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $429.54 and $426.43.There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, SPY finds support just below today's level at $429.54. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $426.43 and $412.55.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $1.41 between high and low, or 0.311%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.505%.

The SPY ETF is overbought on RSI14 and the RSI has been falling for the last couple of days. This together with the fact that the ETF is in the upper part of the trend poses a possible good selling opportunity for the short-term trader. However, one should note that some ETFS may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.

SPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.