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The SPY ETF price gained 0.633% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 2nd Apr 2025), rising from $560.97 to $564.52. It has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 2.28% from a day low at $554.83 to a day high of $567.48. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -0.46% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 8 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 57 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $32.23 billion.
The ETF lies in the middle of a falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -6.70% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $505.20 and $551.85 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the ETF price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, March 13, 2025, and so far it has risen 2.38%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPY ETF holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the ETF giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $578.72. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the short-term average at $564.51. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal.
SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $563.96 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $12.65 between high and low, or 2.28%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.79%.
SPY holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
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