14-day Premium Trial Subscription Try For FreeGet Free

Investors Brace for Potential Downtrend as SPY ETF Holds at Key Support Level

StockInvest.us, 1 month ago

StockInvest.us Overall Analysis

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) experienced a growth of 1.19% with a closing price of $429.54 on October 6, 2023. The trading volume for the day was 113.27 million which was higher than the average trading volume of 76.85 million. This suggests higher investor activity around the stock than usual.

Fundamental Analysis

The EPS (Earnings Per Share) for SPY is 19.85, with a Price to Earnings Ratio of 21.64 which indicates a potential value in the stock compared to similar companies in the industry. The ETF holds a huge market cap of $394.22 billion, and with 917.78 million shares outstanding it represents a significant portion of the market.

The targetLow, targetHigh, targetConsensus, and targetMedian are all at $190, which is lower than its last close at $429.54. This means analysts expect a potential downside for SPY in the future.

Technical Analysis

The 50-day moving average of $441.48 is above the closing price of $429.54 and the 200-day moving average is at $419.80, indicating uptrend in the long run despite short term downtrends.

SPY The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 32 which is near the oversold territory, suggesting potential undervaluation. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is at -7.09, indicating a bearish signal in the short term.

Market Influences

Various market factors are influencing the performance of the SPY. The recent surge in bond interest rates has caused disruption in sectors like housing and commercial real estate. Meanwhile, the VIX suggests a normal market correction rather than a looming bear market. Overall, the bond market's shifts could influence the performance of this ETF.

News on recent fund flows presents a mixed picture. Despite the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Total Return Index logging its third straight weekly loss, ETFs marked the first weekly inflow in three weeks, showing new investor interest.

Stock Prediction

Given the above analysis, the upcoming trading day of October 9, 2023, could see a slight downtrend, reinforced by the bearish MACD and near oversold RSI. This ETF is closer to its next support line at $427.48 than its resistance line at $443.38 which could lead to an initial downtrending phase over the week.


In light of the technical and fundamental analysis, combined with the broad influences impacting the market, the SPY ETF is presently classified as a "Hold". The current uptrend in the long run suggested by the moving averages should be balanced against the potential undervalued position indicated by the near oversold RSI and the bearish MACD signal. The upcoming week might see fluctuations, hence staying on the sideline, observing, and coming to a decision after confirming a trend change might be the best approach.

Check full SPY forecast and analysis here.