Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF downgraded from Strong Buy Candidate to Buy Candidate after Friday trading session

The Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF price gained 1.06% on the last trading day (Friday, 22nd Nov 2024), rising from $55.90 to $56.49. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 2.78% from a day low at $55.32 to a day high of $56.86. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 29.3% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -26 million shares and in total, 65 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $3.67 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 49.05% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $69.14 and $84.20 at the end of this 3-month period.

Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $53.26 and $42.66. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, September 06, 2024, and so far it has risen 85.76%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.

On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $52.13 and $51.04.There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Ishares Bitcoin Trust finds support just below today's level at $52.13. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $51.04 and $43.40.

This ETF may move very much during the day (volatility) and with a very large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this ETF is considered to be "very high risk". During the last day, the ETF moved $1.54 between high and low, or 2.78%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 3.11%.

The Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETF may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF to perform well in the short-term.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Buy candidate.