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Microsoft Stock Faces Short-Term Pressure, Rated as Hold

StockInvest.us, 2 months ago

Microsoft Company Overview

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), a world leader in technology and software services, closed at 334.27 USD on September 8, 2023. This represents a change of 1.32%, or 4.36 USD, from the previous trading day. The company has a substantial market cap of $2.48 trillion, with a trading volume of 18.26 million shares exchanged.

Technical Analysis

Examining the technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI14) is positioned at 72, indicating that the stock is currently in overbought territory. Additionally, the 3-month moving average convergence divergence (MACD) illustrates a negative value of -1.45, indicating potential bearishness.

Microsoft’s 50-day moving average is recorded at 332.67, while its long-term trend, represented by the 200-day moving average, points to a steady upsurge, as it stands at 289.94. The MSFT shares have recently been testing the resistance level at 337.77, with a support level formed near 331.83.

Despite reaching a year high of 366.78 USD, the stock has experienced a volatile period with a wide trading range; as attested by the average true range (ATR) of 1.82.

Fundamental Analysis

Microsoft's earnings per share (EPS) stands at 9.67 USD, while the Price to Earnings (PE) ratio is measured at 34.57, both indicating solid profitability. Furthermore, the company's substantial shares outstanding of 7.43 billion underscores the scale of its operations.

Microsoft Analysts’ consensus target pricing for MSFT varies widely from a low of 220 USD to a high of 420 USD, with a median target of 315 USD and a consensus target of 325.35 USD. It is noteworthy that the majority of analyst ratings indicate a "Buy" sentiment, with 29 supporting this opinion.

In light of these factors, analysts have determined MSFT's discounted cash flow (DCF) to be 338.91, slightly above the last closing price, indicating potential undervaluation.

Market Sentiment and Relevant News

News headlines around the time of analysis have raised concerns about a potential tech bubble burst and a slowdown in the technology sector. However, no specific news directly related to Microsoft was highlighted, meaning that any broad market conditions will still affect its performance.

The company is expected to announce its earnings on October 23, 2023, and this event could potentially influence its immediate stock performance.

Projection and Recommendation

Based on the technical and fundamental data currently available, it's expected that Microsoft's stock may experience some short-term pressure due to broader market conditions. However, given its solid fundamentals and consistently rising moving averages, it's likely that the stock will be resilient overall.

For the next trading day, September 11, 2023, the share price might face continued pressure and potentially fall close to its 50-day moving average. For the upcoming week, while some volatility can be expected, the stock is likely to remain within the range defined by its recent support and resistance levels.

In light of the potential short-term pressures but good long-term prospects given by sound fundamentals and positive analyst sentiment, Microsoft stock is rated as a "Hold". This suggestion is based on the need for further assessment of upcoming market conditions and the imminent earnings release, although the prevailing sentiment leans more towards a 'Buy' in the longer-term.

Check full Microsoft forecast and analysis here.