NIO Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Oversold Conditions and Expectations for Upcoming Earnings Report

Technical Analysis

NIO closed at $3.54 on May 30, 2025, down 3.80% on the day, with a trading range between $3.52 and $3.62. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 31, approaching the oversold territory, suggesting potential for a technical rebound in the short term. The price remains below both the 50-day ($3.88) and 200-day ($4.57) moving averages, underscoring prevailing bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a mild positive reading (0.013), indicating that downward momentum might be waning, but confirmation is pending. Average True Range (ATR) at approximately 4.65% signals moderate intraday price volatility. Immediate support is identified at $3.52, with resistance near $3.75, framing the near-term trading corridor.

For June 2, 2025, given the RSI near 30 and approaching support, a modest recovery or consolidation around current levels is more probable than further sharp declines. Over the coming week, ahead of the June 3 earnings announcement, trading action is likely to center around $3.50-$3.75, with volatility sensitive to any pre-earnings positioning or early information flows.

Fundamental Analysis

NIO’s market capitalization stands at approximately $7.38 billion, reflecting a notable contraction from its year-high trading near $7.71. The trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) is negative at -$1.53, with a corresponding negative price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of -2.3, indicating ongoing unprofitability. The consensus target price among analysts is $4.20, implying around 18.6% upside from the last close, but with a cautious sentiment reflected by 10 analysts rating NIO as “Hold,” 8 as “Buy,” and 2 as “Sell.”

May 2025 deliveries of over 23,000 electric vehicles (EVs) mark a 13% year-over-year increase, which, while positive, is outpaced by peers such as Li Auto, which reported 16% growth in deliveries. The growth pace and evolving competitive landscape in China’s EV sector may challenge NIO’s target sales for 2025. The upcoming first-quarter earnings report on June 3 anticipates a loss per share of $0.22 on revenues around $1.71 billion, consistent with recent trends showing operating losses despite revenue growth.

Intrinsic value assessment is constrained by ongoing losses and uncertain scalability. However, positioning in the smart EV segment and capacity for technological innovation offers long-term growth potential if operational efficiencies improve and market share expands. The stock’s recent discount to moving averages and moderate volume versus average suggests investor caution ahead of earnings but could provide buying interest if results show improvements or positive forward guidance.

Outlook and Near-Term Performance Projection

For the next trading day (June 2, 2025), expect subdued trading with possible volatility skewed to the upside due to oversold conditions and technical support levels. The week ahead, especially post-earnings, could move the stock decisively; a materially better-than-expected earnings print or optimistic guidance may drive a rally toward or above the consensus target of $4.20. Conversely, consistent operating losses or weaker-than-expected sales growth could extend downward pressure.

Long-Term Investment Potential

NIO’s long-term outlook hinges on its ability to leverage technological capabilities in a rapidly growing EV market while navigating intense competition and regulatory complexities. The negative EPS and lack of profitability weigh on intrinsic value today but are typical for growth-stage companies in capital-intensive sectors. Should NIO achieve sustained revenue growth with margin expansion and cash flow positivity, intrinsic value should support a higher valuation. Until then, the risk profile remains elevated with significant dependence on execution and emerging market conditions.

Overall Evaluation

NIO’s stock presents as a Hold candidate. The technical indicators suggest short-term oversold conditions capable of supporting a near-term bounce, whereas fundamental fundamentals remain challenged by ongoing unprofitability and competitive pressure. Consensus analyst views align predominantly with holding the position, reflecting a wait-and-see approach until clearer quarter-on-quarter improvement materializes. The modest upside to the $4.20 target contrasts with the risks embedded in current earnings dynamics. This balance of risk and reward characterizes NIO as a stock to monitor closely with selective engagement based on forthcoming earnings clarity.