NVIDIA Shows Strong Technical Momentum and Growth Potential with Key Resistance at $145

Technical Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA) closed at $144.69 on June 16, 2025, up 1.92% from the prior session. The day’s range between $143.20 and $145.99 shows moderate intraday strength near resistance at $145. The 14-day RSI of 65 reflects bullish momentum, though not yet overbought. The MACD at 6.64 (3-month) confirms an upward trend. The stock trades comfortably above both the 50-day ($121.73) and 200-day ($127.63) moving averages, signaling sustained medium- and long-term strength. Average volume (257 million) exceeds today’s volume (181.57 million), suggesting some cautious profit-taking or consolidation. Key support lies at $139.19, with a stop-loss suggested near $139.23 to manage risk. Resistance at $145 is near-term technical friction, but breakthroughs toward the year high ($153.13) remain possible if momentum continues.

For the next trading day (June 17, 2025), given the stock’s close near resistance and positive technical indicators, a modest upside move to test $145-$147 is likely, though profit-taking could cause sideways action. Over the next week, barring negative news, a gradual push toward $150 seems probable as buying interest aligns above moving averages.

Fundamental Analysis

NVIDIA’s market capitalization stands at approximately $3.53 trillion, underscoring its status as a dominant tech behemoth. The trailing twelve-month (TTM) EPS of $3.10 and a forward P/E of 46.67 indicate the stock trades at a premium, reflecting high growth expectations, particularly driven by its AI and data center businesses. The dividend yield is minimal at 0.03% (TTM), consistent with a growth-oriented equity prioritizing reinvestment over income.

Recent news signals strong bullish fundamentals: expansion in sovereign AI demand and successful mitigation of export restrictions reflect operational resilience and geographic diversification. The sellout of Blackwell GPUs for 12 months highlights robust product demand and pricing power. Ongoing partnerships in Europe, Saudi Arabia, and UAE enhance growth visibility, while decreasing dependence on China reduces geopolitical risk.

Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation estimates intrinsic value near $144.90, closely aligned with the current price, suggesting fair valuation at present levels. Analyst consensus remains positive, with a median price target of $175 and 58 out of 79 analysts rating the stock as Buy or Strong Buy, signaling room for upside.

Intrinsic Value & Long-Term Potential

The intrinsic value derived from DCF approximates $144.90, indicating current price action reflects the company's fundamental worth. However, consensus price targets of $173–$190 point to significant upside potential underscoring expected strong free cash flow growth as AI adoption accelerates globally. NVIDIA’s entrenched market leadership in GPUs, CUDA software ecosystem, and exposure to high-growth sectors (AI, gaming, data centers) support durable competitive advantages. Despite a high P/E, the company’s growth prospects and strategic initiatives justify premium valuation, positioning NVDA as a compelling long-term investment for growth-oriented portfolios.

Risks include international regulatory challenges, intensifying competition, and potential macroeconomic headwinds impacting high-valuation tech stocks.

Overall Evaluation

NVIDIA exhibits robust technical momentum supported by strong fundamentals and positive growth catalysts. The stock trades near intrinsic value with upside potential validated by high analyst targets and expanding market opportunities in AI and cloud infrastructure. Near-term price action may see resistance at $145, but medium-term prospects point toward $150+ levels as achievable.

Given the combination of technical strength, fundamental growth drivers, and solid intrinsic value alignment, NVIDIA qualifies as a Buy candidate in the context of growth investing. Investors should monitor support near $139 and upcoming earnings on August 27 for potential volatility triggers.