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The QQQ ETF price gained 0.0753% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 15th Nov 2023), rising from $385.33 to $385.62. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.91% from a day low at $384.24 to a day high of $387.74. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 8.03% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -14 million shares and in total, 51 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $19.53 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF has broken the horizontal trend up. Breaks like this are often followed by swift and strong movements, and any correction down to the breakline at approximately. $375.80 is considered to be a "second chance" to hit a potential runner. It is, however, important that volume does follow the price as false breaks may appear and it may move back into the horizontal trend. Based on the rectangle-formation theory the ETF is predicted to reach $408.56 sometime during the next 3 months.
The QQQ ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $377.47 and $363.61. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, October 26, 2023, and so far it has risen 12.21%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.
On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $364.70 and $359.97.There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, QQQ finds support just below today's level at $364.70. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $359.97 and $343.66.
This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $3.51 between high and low, or 0.91%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.18%.
The QQQ ETF is extremely overbought on RSI14 (92). Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but since the ETF has broken the trend up, the chance for a major correction due to high RSI is very small as the ETF will find support at the trend broken.
QQQ holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Check full QQQ forecast and analysis here.