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Red day on Friday for Alibaba

StockInvest.us, 2 weeks ago


The Alibaba stock price fell by -1.91% on the last day (Friday, 17th Nov 2023) from $79.11 to $77.60. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.24% from a day low at $76.75 to a day high of $78.47. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -9.04% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -27 million shares and in total, 35 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $2.74 billion.

On Nov 17, 2023, it was reported that Morgan Stanley gave BABA a "Overweight" grade with a "hold" action.

The stock lies in the lower of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $76.71 is broken, it will firstly indicate a stronger fall rate.Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -10.65% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $68.54 and $77.51 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.


Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Alibaba stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $82.20 and $83.53. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, November 15, 2023, and so far it has fallen -10.88%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.

This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $1.72 (2.24%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.39%.

Alibaba holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Check full Alibaba forecast and analysis here.