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The SPY ETF price fell by -1.73% on the last day (Friday, 21st Feb 2025) from $610.44 to $599.90. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.81% from a day low at $599.47 to a day high of $610.30. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -1.06% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 28 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 64 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $38.42 billion.
The ETF is moving within a horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect SPY ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $588.80 and $618.80 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
The SPY ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $608.19. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $599.43. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, February 19, 2025, and so far it has fallen -2.10%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $590.83 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $10.83 between high and low, or 1.81%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.799%.
SPY holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.
Check full SPY forecast and analysis here.