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The SPY ETF price fell by -2.01% on the last day (Friday, 28th Mar 2025) from $567.08 to $555.66. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 2.02% from a day low at $555.04 to a day high of $566.27. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.27% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 21 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 62 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $34.69 billion.
The ETF lies in the middle of a falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -5.48% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $515.21 and $564.47 at the end of this 3-month period.
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, March 13, 2025, and so far it has risen 0.769%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPY ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $567.18 and $582.32. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $551.42 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $11.23 between high and low, or 2.02%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.20%.
SPY holds several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.
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