Red day on Monday for SPY ETF after losing 0.99%, 2 months ago

The SPY ETF price fell by -0.99% on the last day (Monday, 26th Sep 2022) from $367.95 to $364.31. It has now fallen 6 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.98% from a day low at $363.03 to a day high of $370.21. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -11.35% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -31 million shares and in total, 92 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $33.57 billion.

Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect SPY ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $369.96 and $439.35 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.


Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPY ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $377.44 and $402.91. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, August 16, 2022, and so far it has fallen -15.22%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the ETF may perform very badly in the next couple of days.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $7.18 between high and low, or 1.98%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.95%.

SPY holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.

Check full SPY forecast and analysis here.