Red day on Thursday for SPY

No changes to the price of SPY ETF on the last trading day (Thursday, 11th Aug 2022). During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.37% from a day low at $419.21 to a day high of $424.95. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days, but is still up by 3.43% over the past 2 weeks.

The ETFis at the upper part of a wide and horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $422.85 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected.Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect SPY ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $376.36 and $430.04 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

The SPY ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $415.20 and $394.85. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, August 10, 2022, and so far it has fallen 0%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day while price remained unchanged. This may be an early warning, but it may also not. We still recommend that you pay attention over the next couple of days.

On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $389.80 and $375.00.There is natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, SPY finds support just below today's level at $389.80. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $375.00 and $366.65.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $5.74 between high and low, or 1.37%. For the last week, the ETF has had a daily average volatility of 1.06%.

The SPY ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETFS may go long and hard while being overbought and the RSI is still moving upwards. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely, and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Several short-term signals are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity, as there is a fair chance for SPY ETF to perform well in the short-term period.