Red day on Tuesday for SPY

The SPY ETF price fell by -1.53% on the last day (Tuesday, 7th Mar 2023) from $404.47 to $398.27. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.77% from a day low at $397.63 to a day high of $404.67. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -0.21% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 34 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 107 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $42.47 billion.

The ETF lies in the lower part of a weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $393.73 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 5.43% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $415.10 and $448.02 at the end of this 3-month period.

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, March 01, 2023, and so far it has risen 0.89%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPY ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $399.07 and $403.61. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $396.38 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $7.05 between high and low, or 1.77%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.29%.

The SPY ETF holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe SPY will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.